The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of fiscal policy, namely government spending on economic growth over the sample period 2004Q2 up to 2018Q1 for the South African economy.Design/methodology/approachNonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model is used to examine the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of government spending on economic growth.FindingsThe results exhibit the negative change effect of government spending is found to be greater than the positive change effect of government spending on economic growth. Real effective exchange rate is found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth both in the short run and long run. Whereas, inflation rate affects economic growth negatively and significantly in the short run and long run.Originality/valuePrevious empirical studies on the effect of fiscal policy on growth, at least for South Africa, consider only the asymmetric short-run effect while this paper extends the literature by incorporating asymmetries into the long-run effect. It provides a detailed analysis to the recent controversies on the effects of fiscal policy on growth.

The effect of changes in the standard working time on employment and average hours is studied using pooled data from five Finnish manufacturing industries. The model is an error correction model, which makes it possible to separate short-run, reductions in standard hours increase employment. There is evidence that the long run effect of working time on employment has changed over time. In the 1970s reductions in hours have had positive long-run employment effects, but in the 1980s the positive short-run impact has been neutralized in the long run. Changes in standard hours do not influence the utilization rate of labour, which is defined as the ratio of overtime hours to standard hours. In the short run, the utilization rate is influenced by output changes.

The article is devoted to economic reasons for creation of artificial lands, including artificial islands, and problems related to their functioning. The scientific achievements of economic geography constitute a theoretical basis of the analysis. Economic reasons for constructing artificial islands in particular may, to a large extent, be explained by reference to a new economic geography of Paul Krugman. Therefore, the Authors associate the dynamically developing phenomenon of building artificial islands with the process of glocalisation. On the other hand, functioning of artificial islands – in their opinion – may basically be reduced to a concept of the balance of a company, as an artificial island may be treated as its counterpart.

The nonrivalry of ideas gives rise to increasing returns, a fact celebrated in Paul Romer's recent Nobel Prize. An implication is that the long-run rate of economic growth is the product of the degree of increasing returns and the growth rate of research effort; this is the essence of semi-endogenous growth theory. This review interprets past and future growth from a semi-endogenous perspective. For 50+ years, US growth has substantially exceeded its long-run rate because of rising educational attainment, declining misallocation, and rising (global) research intensity, implying that frontier growth could slow markedly in the future. Other forces push in the opposite direction. First is the prospect of “finding new Einsteins”: How many talented researchers have we missed historically because of the underdevelopment of China and India and because of barriers that discouraged women inventors? Second is the longer-term prospect that artificial intelligence could augment or even replace people as researchers. Throughout, the review highlights many opportunities for further research.

The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective

This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on Taiwan's exports to and imports from China across 20 industries, employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The analysis covers the period from January 2004 to December 2022 and highlights industry-specific sensitivities and asymmetric impacts of exchange rate fluctuations. Our findings reveal the critical role of exchange rate volatility in shaping export and import performance across industries, with both positive and negative shocks exerting significant short-run and long-run effects. Asymmetric impacts of exchange rate fluctuations affect 87.96% of Taiwan's total exports to China in the long run and 72.11% in the short run. In contrast, the asymmetric impacts on imports influence 77.12% of Taiwan's total imports from China in the long run and 13.21% in the short run, demonstrating varying sensitivity across industries. These findings accentuate the necessity for industry-tailored trade policies and strategic considerations to better manage the risks and opportunities presented by exchange rate volatility in cross-strait trade. JEL classification numbers: F14, F31, C22. Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, Taiwan-China trade, Non-linear ARDL, Asymmetric effects.

Identifying the impacts of income inequality on CO2 emissions: Empirical evidences from OECD countries and non-OECD countries

The stock market has become a significant role in the economy and has attracted investor's attention, as it is to generate funds and make an investment decision for companies and investors as well. Therefore, the objective of this study is to study the effect of the money supply, exchange rate, interest spread and stock market in the short and long run and volatility issue. The study employed monthly data, from January 1997 to August 2018. Method analysis is the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and GARCH model. The findings stated that the money supply, real effective exchange rate, interest spread, had a long-run effect on the performance of the stock market. Money supply and the real effective exchange rate had a positive effect on the stock market performance in the short run. Conversely, the interest spread showed a negative influent on the stock market performance in the short run. The volatility indicated a high persistence between the money supply, real effective exchange rate, interest spread and stock market (KLCI). The implication of the study is the investors or policymakers should take account the changes of interest rate and exchange rate before making stock investment or policy to stabilize the stock market performance.Keywords: Performance, Money Supply, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Interest Spread

In today’s ever-changing landscape of economy, one of the fundamental problems remains whether market mechanisms are functioning in an efficient way, and which are the variables impacting those levels of efficiency. The main objectives of the present paper are to contribute to a better understanding of market mechanisms, by testing the Efficient market hypothesis on its weak form at a macroeconomic level, and to assess the impact of technological and social progress, measured through different variables, on markets informational efficiency. We use an adapted version of L. Kristoufek si M. Vosvrda (L. Kristoufek, M. Vosvrda, 2013, 184) methodology for Efficiency Index, based on long term memory (using 2 estimators), fractal dimension (using 11 estimators), and entropy (estimated through the approximate entropy), in order to assess the levels of efficiency for 20 market indices from both developed and emerging or frontier economies, from the Eurasia region. Further on, by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), we study the impact of technological and social progress on markets informational efficiency. Main results of the study reveal the existence of a market dynamics characterized by areas with distinctive levels of “informational efficiency”, within both developed and emerging economies, encompassing a non-negligible link between past and present, persistence or anti-persistence, and a high data complexity. Moreover, while studying the relationship between market efficiency and social and technological progress, we observe that variables such as Government Effectiveness, or Control of Corruption, have a positive impact on the levels of efficiency of capital markets, while most of the technological progress estimators (amongst which Computer, communications and other services (% of commercial service exports), or Individuals using the Internet (% of population)), have a negative impact, translated into a decrease of informational market efficiency on the short run (the rise of high frequency trading).

Why does the progress of civilisation require social innovations?

In his I993 Tawney Lecture, Landes returned to the issues raised by an article of mine published in I977.' In that article I argued that Britain's primacy in achieving the decisive inventions in cotton textiles which precipitated the 'industrial revolution' did not of itself show that there was a higher ex ante probability of these events occurring in Britain rather than in France and that it was important to recognize the stochastic elements in technological progress. I also suggested that the literature of the time was in danger of making unwarranted inferences concerning a laundry list of alleged advantages of the British over the French eighteenth-century economy supposed to have been the origins of the first industrial revolution. Landes disagrees. His view is that 'Given the composition and growth of the British industrial sector, it is not an accident that Britain produced the inventions and innovations it did; that France did not; and that even after the British had given the good example, the French . . . had trouble keeping pace.' . . . 'If Britain was first, if France was slower . . . these things have their reasons. '2 I am more than happy to accept that the arguments which I put forward nearly 20 years ago are in need of updating and some modification. Indeed, although Landes does not say so, my position has been refined and revised in a large number of subsequent publications.3 Nevertheless, I believe the central thrust of my old argument, properly stated, is still valid and has indeed been strengthened by further research. The central issues hinge on the concept of 'industrial revolution' and, before turning to a detailed reply to Landes, it is necessary to explore this point. The definition of 'industrial revolution' adopted in the article to which Landes objects was

In a knowledge-based economy, technical progress is ultimately based upon progress in science and upon subsequent progress in technology. This linkage between science and technology has been called “scientific technology” - continuing progress in technology that directly uses progress in science. Scientific technology was the technical basis of the first industrial revolution in the eighteenth century and has continued to provide the technical basis for economic development in the world. During the twentieth century, research universities became the locus of scientific progress while industrial research was the locus of technological progress. At the same time, modern governmental R&D support became a major source of funds for scientific research and for much of the early development of scientific technology research. Thus universities, industry, and government R&D all have become important for fostering continuing progress in scientific technology for a knowledge-based economy.

The Long-Run Impacts of Same-Race Teachers

Jan de Vries revised Akira Hayami’s original theory of the “Industrious Revolution” to make the idea more applicable to early modern commercialization in Europe, showcasing the development of the rural proletariat and especially the consumer revolution and women’s emancipation on the way toward an “Industrial Revolution.” However, Japanese villages followed a different path from the Western trajectory of the “Industrious Revolution,” which is recognized as the first step to industrialization. This article will explore how a different form of “industriousness” developed in Japan, covering medieval, early modern, and modern times. It will first describe why the communal village system was established in Japan and how this unique institution, the self-reliance system of a village, affected commercialization and industrialization and was sustained until modern times. Then, the local history of Kuta Village in Kyô-Otagi, a former county located close to Kyoto, is considered over the long term, from medieval through modern times. Kuta was not directly affected by the siting of new industrial production bases and the changes brought to villages located nearer to Kyoto. A variety of diligent interactions with living spaces is introduced to demonstrate that the industriousness of local women was characterized by conscience-driven perseverance.

list of figures page xi list of tables xii preface xiii introduction xv 1 Growth and Development in History 1 Economic growth and economic development Growth and welfare - The measurement of economic growth - National income accounting: progress, promise, and pitfalls - The growth of income in modern times Economic growth before the mid-nineteenth century - The demographic factor and economic growth - Structural change in history - Structural change and sectoral productivity - The 'services' sector 2 Agriculture in Economic Growth 70 The role of agriculture - The contraction of the agricultural sector - Peasant artisans and peasant traders - Systems of land tenure and inheritance Agricultural productivity before the industrial age - Agricultural productivity in recent times - The sources of productivity improvement - Agricultural productivity and the growth of the economy 3 The Role of Capital 115 (a){emsp}investment and economic 115 growth The unimportance of capital? - Some conceptual and measurement problems - Capital/output ratios, cross-country and over time - Investment ratios in theory and history - Investment: the key to the 'industrial revolution'? - Savings and investment in pre-industrial societies (b){emsp}the sources of capital 157 'Direct' financing and intermediation in history - The financing of the 'industrial revolution' - Financial intermediation in the industrial era - The sources of savings - 'Involuntary' saving (c){emsp}the export of capital 178 The history of capital exports - Capital imports and growth - Capital exports and the lending country - The servicing of external debt - International capital movements and economic growth since 1945 4 Foreign Trade and Economic Growth 218 Trade, State and economy in early modern times - Do trade ratios decline? - Inter-country differences in trade ratios - 'Vertical' specialization before World War I - Trade as an 'engine of growth' - 'Enclave' economies - Trade in manufactures to 1913 - The 'engine of growth' reconsidered - Trade-constrained growth before 1913 The terms of trade of primary producers - New trends in twentieth-century trade Patterns of trade since World War II - Trade and growth: some concluding remarks 5 Technology and the 'Residual' 295 The 'residual' in economic growth - Allocation of resources - 'Human capital' and growth - Denison on the 'partitioning' of growth - The role of technological change - The evidence of patent statistics - The technological revolution? - The sources of invention Private and corporate invention - Invention, innovation and lags in technological advance - Inter-country 'lags' - Technical 'improvements' - Factor proportions and technical change 'Managerial' improvements and productivity - Pitfalls and possibilities in the historical analysis of productivity change 6 Some Theories of Growth and Development 378 Patterns and the unique event in history - Some limiting factors in historical generalization - Hollis B. Chenery's 'patterns of development' - Legal and institutional change in economic development - Market imperfections and national economic integration - The trend of income distribution - 'Labour surplus' models - Patterns of industrial growth: Chenery and Hoffmann - 'Stage' i - 'Take-off' - Uniformity and diversity again - The limitations of economic analysis KEY TO REFERENCES 447 INDEXES 452