The hidden costs of the trade war: evidence from export margins adjustments in Chinese agricultural exports

In the context of the 2018/2019 US–China trade war, the Chinese government responded to President Trump's tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs, particularly targeting US agricultural products such as soybeans. This paper employs a novel instrumental variable approach to assess the causal effect of China's retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural exports, both to China and its primary third‐party importers. The analysis reveals that a 10% increase in retaliatory tariffs on a US agricultural export results in approximately a 1.45%–2.14% reduction in exports to China, alongside a 0.36%–0.58% increase in exports to 38 other major importing nations. In monetary terms, these elasticities translate to estimated annual export losses ranging from 6.91 billion USD to 10.19 billion USD in the Chinese market, contrasted with export gains of 5.30 billion USD to 8.54 billion USD in alternative markets. The findings demonstrate a substantial trade deflection effect, wherein the expansion of exports to third‐party markets counterbalances approximately 76.7%–83.8% of the export contraction in the Chinese market.

Do export quality and destination income matter for exchange rate pass-through? Evidence from China

The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

Comment on “Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War”

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the impending relationship between the impact of the US–China trade war on Taiwanese firms' spending on R&D and their offshore investment in technologically advanced countries (TAC), the authors examined if changes in these firms' R&D ratios and the growing presence of skilled workers in Taiwan's labour market during the trade war have affected their offshore investments in TAC.Design/methodology/approach Using a model built on pooled cross-sectional time-series data from 2012–2019, the authors examined whether a change in R&D ratios of domestic firms in Taiwan and the growing presence of skilled workers in Taiwan's labour market have affected the offshore investment by these firms during the trade war. Using data from the Manpower Utilisation Survey, the authors applied differences–in–differences–in–differences and differences–in–differences–in–differences–in–differences estimation methods and found that the trade war indeed gave a boost to Taiwan's job market, particularly for skilled workers.Findings From the estimation results, the authors noticed a rise in employment opportunities alongside a decline in the earnings of skilled workers in industries where more firms have spent on R&D as well as invested in offshore operations. However, firms in Taiwan that had not heavily spent on R&D from industries where investment in foreign operations was otherwise high have also attracted skilled workers during the trade war.Practical implicationsAn in-depth analysis of the impact of the trade war on domestic firms' spending on R&D and their investment in offshore operations in TAC should be helpful to policymakers interested in understanding the effects of the trade war and subsequent changes in firms' spending on R&D on labour market outcomes. If changes in the R&D ratios and a steady supply of skilled workers influenced the outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to TAC, this insight could be helpful for those devising policies and measures to curb the impact of the trade war on domestic spending on R&D.Originality/value The study findings not only provide broad lessons to policymakers in Taiwan, but the country case study can guide growing economies that are equally careful while perceiving trade war as a significant deterrent to domestic R&D spending and the outflow of FDI.

The world situation is constantly changing, the import and export industry chain is closely related to a country's foreign relations. The recent Sino-US trade war has had a profound impact on the pattern of China's import and export industry. As a strategic industry in China's national economy, the robotics industry is a pillar industry that ensures the security of China's industrial and supply chains. There is a lack of specialized research on robots and quantitative analysis based on customs import and export data in existing domestic papers related to the industrial chain. Papers on the China US trade war mostly rely on existing data for analysis, with few establishing evaluation models and constructing relevant safety indices. Therefore, in order to study the current security status of the robot industry chain, analyze its potential risks and the connection with the US China trade war, and find a path to resist the impact of external factors on the industry chain, we used the HS8-bit code of China's robot industry chain from January 2018 to December 2022 to construct the HHI index to characterize the security status of the robot industry. We used a difference in differences estimation model to evaluate the impact of the US China trade war on the robot industry chain, and concluded that the impact of the US China trade war will significantly increase the risk of the robot industry chain. On this basis, we further established a model to analyze the path of China's robot industry chain to resist the China US trade war. The results show that expanding the scale of high-quality introduction of foreign investment, promoting the construction of a national market, and enhancing independent innovation capabilities can all to some extent resist the negative effects of the China US trade war on the robot industry chain.

The U.S.–China trade war is one of the major issues in the field of international political economy. During Trump’s first and second terms, the United States sought to prevent its trade deficit and, at the same time, to curb China’s economic growth which, according to mercantilist theory, could be translated into enhanced military and political power. To this end, Washington imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports. The U.S.–China trade war can be analyzed at the individual, national, and systemic levels. However, this study, focusing on the systemic level, examines the role of institutional/structural power in the U.S. trade war against China. The central question is: which category of factors—individual, national, or systemic—has had the greatest impact on the U.S.–China trade war? According to the author, systemic factors have played a particularly significant role. The findings indicate that the United States, by virtue of its major security, production, financial, and knowledge structures on the one hand, and its use of the United Nations and its subsidiary institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization on the other, holds an upper hand in the trade war against China. In response, China has pursued a multidimensional strategy—most notably the “dual circulation” policy—as a structural countermeasure to this trade war. This research has been conducted using library resources and analyzed descriptively/explanatorily within the framework of mercantilist theory.

The U.S.–China trade war is one of the major issues in the field of international political economy. During Trump’s first and second terms, the United States sought to prevent its trade deficit and, at the same time, to curb China’s economic growth which, according to mercantilist theory, could be translated into enhanced military and political power. To this end, Washington imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports. The U.S.–China trade war can be analyzed at the individual, national, and systemic levels. However, this study, focusing on the systemic level, examines the role of institutional/structural power in the U.S. trade war against China. The central question is: which category of factors—individual, national, or systemic—has had the greatest impact on the U.S.–China trade war? According to the author, systemic factors have played a particularly significant role. The findings indicate that the United States, by virtue of its major security, production, financial, and knowledge structures on the one hand, and its use of the United Nations and its subsidiary institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization on the other, holds an upper hand in the trade war against China. In response, China has pursued a multidimensional strategy—most notably the “dual circulation” policy—as a structural countermeasure to this trade war. This research has been conducted using library resources and analyzed descriptively/explanatorily within the framework of mercantilist theory.

This research papers attempts to analyze the ongoing trade war between the United States and China and its ramifications for the ASEAN region. The paper starts with a brief review of the trade war between the two world’s largest economies, highlighting the main root causes of this trade conflict. In spite of the fact that in the initial stage of the trade war, ASEAN was largely perceived as a region which would positively benefit from the trade dispute and its spillovers, this research paper disputes such a narrative. As the trade war entered its second year, with a solution to this crisis yet to be found, the ASEAN economies began to feel various impacts of this trade dispute. The section of the paper presenting an analysis of the trade war effects on ASEAN documents largely negative impacts on this region. Given the fact that all the ASEAN member states adopted an export-led economic model – the model that lifted millions out of poverty and helped ASEAN’s economies through the downturn of the 1997 Asian financial crisis – evidence suggests that exports appear to be the first victim of the trade war. Due to the decreasing volume of exports, ASEAN’s economic growth has begun to dwindle. In its conclusion, the research paper argues that as long as the trade war continues to disrupt the global economy, its negative effects will continue to weigh heavily on ASEAN. Keywords: ASEAN, Trade war, United States, China, Export, Economic growth.

The US–China Trade War: Deal or No Deal?

The trade war between the US and China has affected their bilateral trade as well as that with other countries. This chapter investigates how Vietnamese firms performed during the COVID-19 pandemic under the shadow of this trade war. The change in the Vietnamese exports to the US from 2017 to 2020 is used to measure the impact of the trade war, and the change in Chinese exports to the US is then used as an instrument for the Vietnamese export change during the same period. It is found that firms that faced more trade war exposure increased their investment, profit, and value added, which may be due to the market exit of unproductive firms. Moreover, the trade war impact is more pronounced for large firms. Foreign-invested firms gained less from trade war exposure. The pandemic weakened the trade war effect on firm performances; however, it exacerbated the trade tension effect on foreign-trade firms.

This study investigates the effect of the US–China trade war on corporate innovation in the context of China. We find that the first‐order effect of the trade war on corporate innovation is significantly negative. That is, Chinese firms exposed to the US–China trade war have lower numbers of patent applications and invention patent applications. Underlying mechanisms include reductions in market expansion and innovation input. Our findings are more pronounced for firms connected to the United States and those suffering financial distress and for non‐state‐owned enterprises. We further contribute to the literature by showing that firms with developed managerial ability, more confident managers, and better corporate social responsibility performance tend to increase innovation for competitiveness in response to the trade war. Finally, we explore the effect of Chinese retaliatory tariff shocks on corporate innovation and find that US tariffs and Chinese retaliatory tariffs hinder corporate innovation in China.

Impact of the US–China trade war on resource allocation: Evidence from China's land supply

The trade war between the United States and China has created global trade tensions that have had a significant impact on the economies of various countries, including Indonesia. This study analyzes the effects of the trade war, represented by the Trade Tension Index and Import Tariff variables, on Indonesia's macro economy during the 2018–2023 period using monthly data. The macroeconomic variables analyzed include inflation, exports, imports, exchange rates, and industrial production indices. The VECM method is used to evaluate the short-term and long-term effects of the trade war on these variables. The results show that the trade war have a significant effect, both in the short and long term, on inflation, exports, imports, and exchange rates. However, the effect on the industrial production index is not significant. These findings indicate that the trade war not only affects Indonesia's price stability and international trade but also has implications for exchange rate volatility, which can complicate the management of monetary and trade policies. The results of this study emphasize the importance of strengthening the resilience of the trade sector and developing adaptive industrial policies to mitigate the negative impacts of trade wars while maximizing opportunities from international trade dynamics.

Since April 2018, the USA and China have been engaged in a trade war. Because of the importance of these two countries in world trade, this dispute does affect not only the Chinese and American economies but also the entire world. Several studies have shown the impact of this dispute on different countries in Asia, but little was done to study the effect on European Union (EU) member states. The trade war between the USA and China should not let us forget the trade disputes between Washington and Brussels on one hand and EU–China trade differences on the other hand. This article will take stock of European policy towards the USA and China in this trade war; we will study the consequences of the US–China trade war on the exchanges between Europe and China and analyze the possible diversion created by this trade war for the European market.