Abstract
The earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that occurred near the town of Haicheng in northeast China on 4 February, 1975 was the first major earthquake anywhere in the world known to have been predicted with enough certainty for people to have been warned, and measures taken for civil protection. These steps were successful in keeping the number of casualties small. This paper describes a visit to the affected area seven and a half months after the earthquake, and discussions with Chinese scientists about their successful prediction methods. The prediction resulted from the synthesis of many types of investigation, but the main methods used for long-, mid-, and short- term prediction appear to have been based on studies of seismicity, deformation, and foreshocks respectively.
Highlights
The earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that occurred near the town of Haicheng in northeast China on 4 February, 1975 was the first major earthquake anywhere in the world known to have been predicted with enough certainty for people to have been warned, and measures taken for civil protection
This paper describes a visit to the affected area seven and a half months after the earthquake, and discussions with Chinese scientists about their successful prediction methods
On 4 February, 197 5 a major earthquake occurred near the town of Haicheng in Liaoning Province of northeast China
Summary
On 4 February, 197 5 a major earthquake occurred near the town of Haicheng in Liaoning Province of northeast China. Despite the size of the earthquake and the large population of the area affected by it, casualties were few This was a direct consequence of the successful prediction of the earthquake by Chinese scientists, leading to a series of warnings of increasing urgency, culminating in an evacuation order issued some five and a half hours before the earthquake occurred. During the course of a two week visit to China in September, 1975, I was able to spend two full days in the region affected by the earthquake and discuss its prediction and effects with Chinese scientists at national institutes in Peking and Harbin, and at local centres in Liaoning Province. I was able to inspect damaged towns and villages and to talk to local inhabitants, as well as professional and part-time seismological workers During this time I was accompanied by Mr Chu Feng-ming, Head of the Liaoning Provincial Seismological Brigade. As far as I know, I was the first foreign seismologist to visit China since the Haicheng earthquake, and the first to visit the affected area
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