Abstract
ABSTRACT: Northern Ireland’s elections are typically a contest about Union versus unity. However, constitutionally neutral parties have increased their vote share. Both communal blocs are now minorities. How significant is this shift? This paper analyses transfers from Alliance and the Green Party to nationalist and unionist blocs between 1997 and 2023. I show why it is reasonable to estimate that the nationalist share of Other party transfers has doubled. The concept of notional communal bloc (communal bloc first preferences added to lower preference votes for that bloc from Alliance and the Green Party) is introduced. It is estimated that the notional nationalist bloc is now a majority of Northern Ireland’s voters. Evidence of election-time communal realignment of many communally dealigned voters is presented. Northern Ireland is in a transformed and more complex political space: still pro-Union but also notionally nationalist. The implications of this transformation for zero-sum politics and reunification are discussed.
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