Abstract
ABSTRACT: A recent paper by the author estimated that a majority of Northern Ireland's voters gave either their first preference or their highest non-Other preference to nationalist-bloc candidates. This estimate was based on the addition of nationalist-bloc and unionist-bloc lower preferences from Alliance and Green Party transfers when candidates from both non-Other blocs were available to receive transfers. However, this methodology understates the unionist-bloc—with consequent overstating of the nationalist-bloc—share. This paper presents a revised estimate for N-bloc and U-bloc shares of first preferences and highest non-Other preferences based on an improved methodology. The author's previous estimate still holds, though there is a smaller gap between unionist and nationalist blocs. Further longitudinal analysis of non-Other transfers is needed.
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