Abstract
This study uses data from the current rate of population growth, agricultural development and effects of climate change to estimate the future of water demand and the amount of available water in the Shatt Al-Arab River basin. The Shatt Al-Arab River will be facing a freshwater deficit as a result of the decrease of water received from its tributaries. Currently, the river receives freshwater from the Tigris only, as a result to dam construction projects on the tributaries remaining. In 2040, it is expected that the freshwater from the Tigris will not be available to the Shatt Al-Arab; therefore the intrusion of seawater into the river will increase. This may cause a gradual change of water quality in the river from freshwater to seawater. When the Shatt Al-Arab River loses freshwater from all its tributaries the seawater will progress further from Persian Gulf towards the upstream.
Highlights
In full Shatt Al-Arab River (SAR) receives freshwater from four main tributaries, which are; The Tigris, Euphrates, Karkheh and Karun Rivers
Census estimations in the Shatt Al-Arab River basin (SARB) shows that the population was 52.41 million people in 2010 (Table 2), more than half of the basin’s population (28.60 million, 54.57% of the total) live in Iraq
The SARB is a transboundary basin, as is comprised of two main tributaries, namely the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers that originate in Turkey, in addition to the Karkheh and the Karun Rivers which originate in Iran
Summary
In full Shatt Al-Arab River (SAR) receives freshwater from four main tributaries, which are; The Tigris, Euphrates, Karkheh and Karun Rivers. Despite the fact that these tributaries originate in the mountains of Turkey and Iran, Syria and Iraq share the waters of this basin. The Basin faces accelerated growth of irrigated area, population and dam construction as well as climate warming (Jones et al, 2008; Bozkurt & Sen, 2013; Issa et al, 2014). In this region water withdrawal are very high, the renewal water rate is low because of dominating arid climate (El-Fadel et al, 2012). Water shortages are affecting the human welfare, economic activity, and political stability (Jones et al, 2008), so, predict the future situation of water is an urgent goal
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