The Future Course of Solid Waste Management in the U.S

Abstract

It is postulated that the current "garbage crisis" is due to a shortage of disposal capacity, not to burgeoning amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW). In support of this, trends in the quantity and composition of MSW, methods of waste reduction, recycling and growth of waste-to-energy capacity are examined to gain insight as to the future course of MSW management in the U.S. over about the next 15 plus years. This is the likely time to install new disposal capacity if pending legislative proposals are passed, that would enable states that provide their own disposal to ban wastes from other states. A new term, the "intensity of waste generation", is proposed and illustrated, analogous to the intensity of mineral usage. The intensity is decreasing, implying that it is unlikely that waste generation will grow at rates projected by extrapolation or simple macroeconomic assumptions. Some other conclusions are: per capita MSW generation was nearly statistically constant from 1970 to 1984; the content of most forms of packaging in MSW are decreasing; packaging decreases the amount of food residues in MSW; and proposed national recycling targets of about 25% or more are not likely to be achieved, in part because of changes in the composition of MSW. Coupled with likely shortages of labor to process separated waste, it is forecast that there will be some future time when people will not think source separation is worth the bother and recycling will decrease. The future growth of waste-to-energy capacity is projected by assuming that a city will install capacity when others have done so, which leads to a simple quantitative model. The likely effects of impending landfill and incineration regulations are addressed.