The frequency distribution and stochastic analysis of the hydrological drought in northern Algeria

Abstract

The objective of this study was to examine drought using the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) at various time scales and its temporal evolution using monthly streamflow data from 1973 to 2009. Streamflow records were collected from a network of 14 hydrometric stations distributed throughout the study area. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to assess the quality of the adjustment. According to these criteria, the gamma law better suited the time scales of 3, 6, and 12 months, whereas the log-normal law was better suited to the scale of 9 months. The analysis of the Streamflow Drought Index in the three study basins (Middle and Upper Cheliff, Lower Cheliff, and the Mina) revealed that different classes of drought among 3, 6, 9, and 12-month time scales in the period of 1973 to 2009 had occurred, notably beginning in 1980. The frequency of 19 to 54% was found at all stations and in years marked by a mild drought. The moderate years had a frequency of 6 to 19%, while the severe and extreme years had a lower percentage (about 3 to 6%) in the study area. Two consecutive years of drought (D-D) were more likely in the Middle and Upper Cheliff basins (> 60%) for the 6, 9, and 12-month time scales, according to the transition of probability of first-order non-stationary Markov chain. On a three-month time scale, the transition probabilities (D-D) were greater than 50% in the Coastal basin and Lower Cheliff basin, as well as the Mina basin, and less than 50% in the Middle and Upper Cheliff basins.