The Foundation of the Mathematical Model of Economic Impact and the Analysis of the Effect on the Economy of Shanghai World Expo

Abstract

This paper mainly use the macroeconomic theory, cost benefit analysis, Time Series forecasting method and the method of quantitative to get the World Expo on Shanghai’s economic impact modeling and analysis. Using the Gallup’s prediction of passenger volume get expected income and expenditure. Give a quantitative evaluation prediction about the Shanghai economy, separately from GDP and income spending the two macro angles and tourist arrivals and employment the two microscopic view. First, the application of macroeconomic theory in the multiplier effect model, using linear regression method, according to 1980–2002 in Shanghai’s per capita income and consumption, forecast 2002 - 2010 increase of value of 4204.0601 billion, using time series methods, predicted Shanghai in 2010 from August to October the number of tourists were 585.56, 621.1, 659.16 million. Finally, the application of cost - benefit analysis, the establishment of forecast net income of Shanghai’s economic model, based on the forecast of revenue and expenditure, obtained total revenue of 85.037 billion yuan and total expenditure of 91.95 billion yuan, during the operation of the Expo. And use the data to prove that the Shanghai World Expo will help boost the confidence of people around the world and the courage to accelerate and promote world economic recovery process.KeywordsMacroeconomic TheoryLinear RegressionCost Benefit Analysis