Abstract
为了从有限的实测资料中挖掘更多洪水信息，以武江流域为研究对象，在考证历史洪水进行特大值处理基础上，基于犁市（二）水文站1956-2009年实测日流量数据提取了POT样本，构建基于P-Ⅲ模型确定控制点而改进的非等步长内集-外集模型（P-IOSM）进行洪水风险信息挖掘. 结果表明：结合POT和P-IOSM模型的洪水风险评估能够从有限的实测资料中获取更多的洪水风险信息，得到更贴近事实的风险评估结果，能为决策者提供更多的依据，从而使决策结果更加可靠实用.;In order to get more information about the flood risk, the Peak-over-threshold (POT) flood samples are extracted after extraordinary flood processing with historical information based on daily flow data of Lishi(2) station in the Wujiang River Basin form 1956-2009. Then the improved non-isochronous Interior-Outer-Set Model (IOSM) which uses P-Ⅲ to determine the control point is applied to analyse the flood risk. The results show that: we can get more flood risk information from limited data and flood risk assessment result that is closer to fact by combining POT and P-IOSM models. It will provide more evidence for policy-makers which makes the decision-making more reliable and practical.
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