THE EXPANSION OF CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE PARIS FRAMEWORK: ALTERNATIVE DESIGNS AND EFFICIENCY-EQUITY TRADE-OFFS

Why carbon leakage matters and what can be done against it

We study the impact of carbon pricing on CO2 emissions across five sectors for a panel of 39 countries over 1990-2016. Using newly constructed sector-level carbon price data, we implement a novel approach to estimate the changes in CO2 emissions associated with (i) the introduction of carbon pricing regardless of the price level; (ii) the implementation effect as a function of the price level; and (iii) post-implementation marginal changes in the CO2 price. We find that the introduction of carbon pricing has reduced growth in CO2 emissions by 1% to 2.5% on average relative to counterfactual emissions, with most abatement occurring in the electricity and heat sector. Exploiting variation in carbon pricing to explain heterogeneity in treatment effects, we find an imprecisely estimated semi-elasticity of a 0.05% reduction in emissions growth per average $1/metric ton (hereafter abbreviated as: ton) of CO2. After the carbon price has been implemented, each marginal price increase of $1/tCO2 has temporarily lowered the growth rate of CO2 emissions by around 0.01%. These are disappointingly small effects. Simulating potential future emissions reductions in response to carbon price paths, we conclude that – in the absence of complementary non-pricing policy interventions – carbon pricing alone, even if implemented globally, is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve emission reductions consistent with the Paris climate agreement.

SummaryThe shipping industry is a hard-to-abate sector in today’s society. Although past studies have looked at levels of carbon pricing, fuel savings, and the upscaling of green fuel availability separately, we combine these critical parameters for a green transition of the shipping industry to show what it takes to reach sectoral emissions reduction targets in line with the Paris Agreement. We utilize a least-cost optimization model drawing on data on, e.g., emissions with lifecycle elements and the costs of green fuel production. We find that reaching maritime reduction targets for a green transition requires high growth rates for green fuel availability, carbon pricing beyond 300EUR/tCO2eq, and at least 50% in fuel demand savings compared to today’s demand projection for 2050. The results show the importance of immediate climate action if maritime emissions reduction goals are to be achieved.

Carbon pricing has been hailed as an essential component of any sensible climate policy. Internalize the externalities, the logic goes, and polluters will change their behavior. The theory is elegant, but has carbon pricing worked in practice? Despite a voluminous literature on the topic, there are surprisingly few works that conduct an ex-post analysis, examining how carbon pricing has actually performed. This paper provides a meta-review of ex-post quantitative evaluations of carbon pricing policies around the world since 1990. Four findings stand out. First, though carbon pricing has dominated many political discussions of climate change, only 37 studies assess the actual effects of the policy on emissions reductions, and the vast majority of these are focused on Europe. Second, the majority of studies suggest that the aggregate reductions from carbon pricing on emissions are limited—generally between 0% and 2% per year. However, there is considerable variation across sectors. Third, in general, carbon taxes perform better than emissions trading schemes (ETSs). Finally, studies of the EU-ETS, the oldest ETS, indicate limited average annual reductions—ranging from 0% to 1.5% per annum. For comparison, the IPCC states that emissions must fall by 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C—the goal set by the Paris Agreement (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2018). Overall, the evidence indicates that carbon pricing has a limited impact on emissions.

Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector: Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree target in Nepal: the potential role of a carbon tax

Pricing carbon effectively: a pathway for higher climate change ambition

China is pursuing aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its coal-dominated electric power system. Two key strategies are power market reform and carbon pricing. This paper investigate the synergistic effects of these two strategies in reducing CO2 emissions from power system operations. We develop an economic dispatch model to simulate hourly power supply system operation in China Southern Power Grid in 2018 under fifteen carbon pricing scenarios; these reflect a wide range of policy ambition, from today’s carbon prices to much higher ones that aim to instigate aggressive emission mitigation. Our results show that moderate carbon pricing alone is insufficient to effectively reduce CO2 emissions without concurrent power sector reform. With power sector reform and as carbon prices increase, large coal units supplemented by energy storage witness higher use rates as they supplant smaller coal-fired generators, until a carbon price of 300 RMB/TCO2 phases out coal use in favor of natural gas. Only at carbon prices higher than 300 RMB/TCO2 do emissions begin to decrease appreciably. Geographic disparities emerge among the five provinces that comprise the Southern Power Grid, with Guangdong witnessing the most CO2 emission reduction at high carbon prices, while emissions reduction in other provinces are negligible. Carbon pricing also dramatically increases total power system costs, even at low carbon prices. Our results show the necessity of introducing power sector reform and carbon pricing policies concurrently if the goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, with the ultimate goal being a carbon price significantly greater than 300 RMB/TCO2. Because both options will be necessary, our research maps a path to deep emission reductions in China Southern Power Grid for investors, analysts, and policy makers as discussions regarding both reforms accelerate.

Editorial: Governing the EU's climate and energy transition through the 2030 Framework

Financial incentives to poor countries promote net emissions reductions in multilateral climate agreements

As agreed on in the Paris Agreement, each country determines its own contribution to combat climate change on a voluntary basis. There is no mechanism to force a country to comply with its own nationally determined contributions. This bottom-up approach builds on unilateral actions and yields a kind of carbon pricing, which is not necessarily identical across countries. As a consequence, these nationally determined climate policies have drawbacks in terms of carbon leakage and loss of competitiveness for firms producing in high carbon price countries. To reduce these negative effects, border adjustments (BAs) may be appropriate subsequent to more stringent environmental regulation. We model a three-stage game involving carbon price competition in the first stage, the introduction of BAs in the second stage and oligopolistic competition between firms in the third stage. Strategic trade theory suggests that the qualitative results about the optimal BA policy may vary with the underlying type of competition, namely Bertrand and Cournot competition. However, our results are similar for both types of competition. We conclude that BAs are suitable for supporting a more stringent environmental policy. Moreover, we find that anticipation of the implementation of BAs in the second stage yields higher average carbon prices in the first stage since high carbon price countries increase their carbon prices whereas the other countries partially offset.

The implementation of instruments for carbon pricing has increased to achieve the goals set in the Paris Agreement with respect to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil has already expressed its interest in using carbon pricing as a method to meet its goals. This study aims to determine the impact of the implementation of internal carbon prices on the outturn of the Brazilian power distribution sector and on the energy tariff paid by end consumers. The results of this investigation, which includes data from 31 companies and scenarios with eight reference prices, show that the net income decreases by 1% when the carbon price is US$0.4 and the energy tariff increases by 1% when the carbon price is US$4. This study contributes to the implementation of carbon pricing by the Brazilian power distribution sector and the elaboration of future energy tariff regulations by policy makers. Suggestions for future studies are provided in the conclusions.

The implementation of instruments for carbon pricing has increased to achieve the goals set in the Paris Agreement with respect to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil has already expressed its interest in using carbon pricing as a method to meet its goals. This study aims to determine the impact of the implementation of internal carbon prices on the outturn of the Brazilian power distribution sector and on the energy tariff paid by end consumers. The results of this investigation, which includes data from 31 companies and scenarios with eight reference prices, show that the net income decreases by 1% when the carbon price is US$0.4 and the energy tariff increases by 1% when the carbon price is US$4. This study contributes to the implementation of carbon pricing by the Brazilian power distribution sector and the elaboration of future energy tariff regulations by policy makers. Suggestions for future studies are provided in the conclusions.

Combined effects of carbon pricing and power market reform on CO2 emissions reduction in China's electricity sector

Implementing a carbon pricing policy in any country remains a complex challenge, requiring the careful navigation of economic, social, and political factors to ensure policy coherence and stakeholder buy-in. Given the critical role of carbon pricing in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, this study provides empirical evidence on the impact of carbon price implementation on carbon emission reductions globally. The study is motivated by the a priori assumption that carbon pricing policies incentivize polluters to adopt carbon-neutral technologies, leading to emission reductions. Using data from 30 jurisdictions between 1990 and 2020, comprising both developed economies and eight emerging markets where either a carbon tax, an emission trading system, or both have been implemented, we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing mechanisms while controlling for economic growth, population, energy intensity, and environmental policy stringency. The findings confirm that carbon pricing leads to a significant reduction in emissions, with the Emission Trading System proving to be more effective in accelerating emission reductions than the carbon tax. Specifically, the Emission Trading System is associated with a 12.06% reduction in carbon emissions, compared to an 8.91% reduction under the carbon tax. These results underscore the importance of market-based mechanisms in driving decarbonization efforts. The findings also have critical policy implications, highlighting the need for tailored carbon pricing strategies that align with national economic structures and political contexts. Robustness checks and policy recommendations are provided to guide policymakers in designing effective carbon pricing frameworks to enhance climate mitigation efforts.