Abstract
The UK has played a critical role in shaping EU–China relations. Policymakers need to carefully consider the extent to which Brexit will weaken the EU’s collective power – shifting the balance in China’s favour – and impact prospects for increasing EU involvement in East Asia. Brexit arrives at a moment when negotiations for an ambitious bilateral investment agreement continue – with an eye on an eventual free trade agreement – while EU policymakers increasingly perceive challenges arising from the expansion of China’s global presence, exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative, the creation of alternative international institutions, and its behaviour in the South China Sea disputes. As both the EU and China emerge as global powers, the significance of their relationship’s trajectory extends beyond bilateral confines. I analyse how the relationship’s contemporary dynamics are playing out and likely to evolve. Assessing the impact of Brexit on the relative power balance, specifically the EU27’s collective economic, military and political power, sets the scene for mapping out the ‘state of play’ in four crucial issue areas, highlighting the UK’s preferences and input. This leads to consideration of how the loss of resources and shifting constellation of preferences among the EU27 could affect the attainment of strategic objectives. I argue that while Brexit does not fundamentally disrupt the EU–China relationship, it will weaken the EU’s capacity to respond to China’s rise and necessitates a recalibration to the new constellation of Member State preferences and reduced resources.
Highlights
The rise of China is one of the defining features of the post-Cold War era
Brexit arrives at a moment when negotiations for an ambitious bilateral investment agreement continue – with an eye on an eventual free trade agreement – while EU policymakers increasingly perceive challenges arising from the expansion of China’s global presence, exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative, the creation of alternative international institutions, and its behaviour in the South China Sea disputes
The public record indicates that EU policymakers increasingly perceive challenges arising from China’s expanding global presence, exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and investment in European critical infrastructure
Summary
The rise of China is one of the defining features of the post-Cold War era. Rapid economic transformation has propelled China to the centre of global politics, with leaders who are increasingly confident in advancing their interests and pursuing greater influence in the governance of the international system. Aspects of China’s behaviour – in the South China Sea disputes – test the durability of the rules-based order and have fostered further concern among European policy elites, leading to recognition that the EU’s approach needs ‘to be more realistic, assertive and multi-faceted’.2 As both the EU and China emerge as global powers, the significance of their relationship’s trajectory extends well beyond the bilateral context. At the time of writing (February 2020), how the future UK–EU relationship in the foreign policy domain will be operationalised remains indeterminate; this paper assumes that the UK and EU will cooperate informally when interests overlap This will be limited to areas where the legal framework of the EU’s external relations permit non-members to participate (such as the CFSP and CSDP), areas of exclusive EU competence will be off limits. Before the referendum President Xi had indicated a preference for the UK to remain in the EU8 undoubtedly Brexit presents numerous strategic gains for the PRC
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
