The EU-Kazakhstan Energy Partnership in Post-2022: Soft Balancing amid Russia’s strategic interests in the Region

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This research investigates the dynamic evolution of the energy partnership between the European Union and Kazakhstan through the lens of soft balancing theory, analysing how Kazakhstan leverages institutional cooperation formalized by the enhanced partnership and cooperation agreement (EPCA) with the European Union to counterbalance Russian dominance in Central Asian energy markets. In the wake of Russia's military incursion into Ukraine in February 2022, Kazakhstan's role as a pivotal energy supplier and transit route has acquired unparalleled importance, and also sought remedies for diversification. This study elucidates how the EU-Kazakhstan Strategic Partnership Agreement signifies a fundamental transformation from conventional trade agreements to institutionalized frameworks that encompass energy security, supply chain resilience, and technological advancement. By examining the Middle Corridor initiative, cooperation in sustainable raw materials, and the development of renewable hydrogen projects, this research illustrates how Kazakhstan implements soft balancing tactics to diminish its reliance on infrastructure controlled by Russia while upholding the principles of multi-vectorism. The results suggest that Kazakhstan's shift from a singular reliance on Russian transit routes to complex interdependencies with EU and regional stakeholders exemplifies effective soft balancing; however, the sustainability of this transition is contingent upon the acceleration of non-Russian route capacity and the alignment with EU decarbonisation goals, alongside safeguarding against potential retaliatory measures from great powers such as Russia.