The End of Union? Scottish Nationalism and the UK State

Abstract

Every few years, the question of Scottish independence returns to the political agenda, usually following a rise in the fortunes of the Scottish National Party (SNP). This is not exceptional, since other stateless nations — such as Quebec, Catalonia, or the Basque Country — which have kept their constitutional options open have similar recurrent debates, while experiences in Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans have reminded us of the contingency and fragility of states. Yet there are some peculiar features of the Scottish debate, attributable to the specific nature of the United Kingdom, its history and institutions, and the way in which nation is linked to the state. There are three levels of analysis here: of mass opinion, of political elites, and of institutions. These levels are not independent, since elites and masses obviously have mutual influence. Institutions shape attitudes at both mass and elite level, represent compromises among competing visions of the state, and contain their own dynamics, which may be centripetal or centrifugal. The old unionist consensus has been undermined but there is, as of yet, no nationalist consensus to replace it. There are few constitutional, legal, or political obstacles to Scottish independence. A bigger problem is that nationalist and renewed unionist options require a reconstruction of the nation in a wider sense, a task that the political parties have not addressed. Independent or not, Scotland faces many of the same challenges as a small nation adapting to European and global challenges.