Abstract
The transportation sector has become the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One solution to mitigate the impacts is a shift towards electric modes. Where previous studies have only focused on the replacement of individual modes, our study presents a more holistic approach by comparing land-based, water-based and airborne transportation modes. We study the GHG emission reduction potentials of electric cars, buses, trains, ferries and aircraft in comparison to existing modes on 34 routes within Finland and across the Baltic Sea to Sweden and Estonia. By comparing the GHG emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per passenger kilometer for each mode, we also consider the emissions generated from battery production as well as the differences in the energy mix from electricity production of the three studied countries. In addition to CO2-eq emissions per passenger kilometer, we also take real door-to-door travel times into account. Our study found that electric transportation modes possess great potential for emissions reduction. Nevertheless, depending on the energy mix used for electricity production, the emissions of electric transportation modes can exceed those of existing modes significantly. In addition, the emissions generated by battery production can have a significant share of the total emissions and should therefore always be considered. Finally, while also taking into account the door-to-door travel times, our study identified the great potential of electric aircraft to provide a less carbon intensive transportation option paired with short travel times starting on routes beyond 300 km where no high-speed rail exists as well as on routes across the water.
Highlights
The latest IPCC special report calls for drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels (Rogelj et al 2018)
The results show that the carbon intensity of the electricity grid greatly influences the total use phase emissions of the electric transport modes, which is in line with the results of the sensitivity analysis by Ellingsen et al (2016) on the effect of electricity carbon intensity on EV lifecycle emissions
The aim of this study was to provide a holistic view on the carbon dioxide emission reduction potentials of a modal shift from existing to fully electric transportation modes, considering land-based and water-based and airborne transportation modes
Summary
The latest IPCC special report calls for drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels (Rogelj et al 2018). There are numerous studies that have examined the emissions reduction potentials of a modal shift among existing transportation modes (Dalkic et al 2017, Kaack et al 2018, Baumeister and Leung 2021), but only a few have discussed the potential of a shift towards new modes of electric transportation. These studies have, looked at individual modes, such as a modal shift from conventional to electric cars (Jung and Koo 2018, Ortar and Ryghaug 2019), conventional buses to electric buses (Teoh et al 2018, Nordelöf et al 2019) or conventional aircraft to electric aircraft (Brdnik et al 2019, Baumeister et al 2020). There are no studies that provide a holistic approach to a modal shift from existing to fully electric transportation modes on a door-todoor basis and which consider land-based and water-based and airborne transportation modes
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