Abstract
BackgroundThe projection studies are imperative to satisfy demands for health care systems and proper response to the public health problems such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).MethodsTo accomplish this, we established an illness-death model based on available data to project the future prevalence of IBD in Asia, Iran in particular, separately from 2017 to 2035. We applied two deterministic and stochastic approaches.ResultsIn 2035, as compared to 2020, we expected a 2.5-fold rise in prevalence for Iran with 69 thousand cases, a 2.3-fold increment for North Africa and the Middle East with 220 thousand cases, quadrupling of the prevalence for India with 2.2 million cases, a 1.5-fold increase for East Asia region with 4.5 million cases, and a 1.6-fold elevation in prevalence for high‐income Asia‐Pacific and Southeast Asia regions with 183 and 199 thousand cases respectively.ConclusionsOur results showed an emerging epidemic for the prevalence of IBD in Asia regions and/or countries. Hence, we suggest the need for immediate action to control this increasing trend in Asia and Iran. However, we were virtually unable to use information about age groups, gender, and other factors influencing the evolution of IBD in our model due to lack of access to reliable data.
Highlights
Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a lifelong and nonfatal disease, or rather a global public health problem, marked by continuous cycles of remission and recurrence
Unlike some developed countries, we are still facing a marked increase in the incidence and/or prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in the Asian continent and developing countries such as Iran [2,3,4]
Olfatifar et al BMC Gastroenterol (2021) 21:204 it is crucial to implement actions in the health settings to address the issue more effectively. Taking such actions need reliable and credible knowledge on the future epidemiology of the disease, which has not been well known despite multiple studies in Iran and Asia
Summary
Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a lifelong and nonfatal disease, or rather a global public health problem, marked by continuous cycles of remission and recurrence. In this respect, IBD poses multiple challenges for patients and the health care systems by undermining the quality of life of patients and imposing medication and care costs [1]. Olfatifar et al BMC Gastroenterol (2021) 21:204 it is crucial to implement actions in the health settings to address the issue more effectively Taking such actions need reliable and credible knowledge on the future epidemiology of the disease, which has not been well known despite multiple studies in Iran and Asia. The projection studies are imperative to satisfy demands for health care systems and proper response to the public health problems such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)
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