The election of Emmanuel Macron and the new French party system: a return to the éternel marais?

Abstract

This article applies Maurice Duverger’s 1964 thesis of the éternel marais to the French party system following Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the 2017 presidential election. Duverger argued that for around 80 per cent of the period from 1789 to 1958, France had been governed from the centre, which he called the marais, with power shifting not between the left and the right, but between governments of the moderate left and the moderate right. At the time, Duverger believed that this tendency might be about to end due to social change and the then recent introduction of the direct election of the president that created the potential for a bipolarisation of the party system. In retrospect, Duverger’s argument was very prescient. We update his figures to show that from 1959 to 2017 marais governments all but disappeared. However, Macron’s election seems to mark a change. We show that there has been a return to a Duverger-style marais government. Moreover, Macron’s election has challenged the established bipolarisation of the French party system, suggesting the potential for a new three- or four-pole system. In this context, we argue that the chances of a return to a new and ongoing period of marais governments are high.