The Effects of Wind, Speed and Ice Pressure on PC3 Module Carriers During Winter Northern Sea Route Transits

Abstract

Abstract Two historical voyages were completed in December 2021 and January 2022 over the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in a westerly direction. A lack of accurate real time data regarding ice conditions and the influence of changing meteorological conditions severely complicated voyage planning. Normal voyage planning for the Northern Sea Route is based on historical satellite data. The objective is to extrapolate possible ice conditions throughout the planned route. This historical data has not been taken into account changes in wind, current and relative ice pressure. In addition, the effect of wind drag on the "sail area" of modules being transported has a significant influence on the application of the power necessary to penetrate ice at the speed and fuel consumption calculations stipulated by the Vessels’ design. The safe transit of the Northern Sea Route from the beginning of December to the end of March cannot be accurately predicted by using the historical data available today. This significantly increases the risk factors considered not only in pre-voyage planning but throughout the voyage itself. The application of the current regulatory regime requirements to navigate via the Northern Sea Route during the December-March period by no means eliminates the possibility of vessels becoming beset by ice. Close communication with Rosatomflot prior to entering the Northern Sea Route is a necessity in order to appraise the ice conditions in higher risk areas as well as to optimized route planning. Furthermore, operational experience during periods of nuclear icebreaker support is critical to maintain safe progress on the Northern Sea Route. This Paper will address these challenges, as well as attempt to quantify: The effect on wind pressure and wind direction on icebreaking capabilitiesThe effects of wind speed and direction on ice pressure relative to coastal geography.The effects of changing ice conditions on fuel consumption with- and without icebreaker support.