Abstract
AbstractPolitical elites sometimes seek to delegitimize election results using unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Most recently, Donald Trump sought to overturn his loss in the 2020 US presidential election by falsely alleging widespread fraud. Our study provides new evidence demonstrating the corrosive effect of fraud claims like these on trust in the election system. Using a nationwide survey experiment conducted after the 2018 midterm elections – a time when many prominent Republicans also made unsubstantiated fraud claims – we show that exposure to claims of voter fraud reduces confidence in electoral integrity, though not support for democracy itself. The effects are concentrated among Republicans and Trump approvers. Worryingly, corrective messages from mainstream sources do not measurably reduce the damage these accusations inflict. These results suggest that unsubstantiated voter-fraud claims undermine confidence in elections, particularly when the claims are politically congenial, and that their effects cannot easily be mitigated by fact-checking.
Highlights
Claims of voter fraud like this are not uncommon, especially outside the USA
While recent events and the voluminous elite cues literature (e.g., Zaller 1992) lead us to expect that fraud claims would have a deleterious effect, several streams of previous research suggest that political leaders may have a limited ability to alter citizen’s attitudes about the legitimacy of foundational political institutions like elections by inventing accusations of fraud
This study presents novel experimental evidence of the effect of unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud on public confidence in elections
Summary
Claims of voter fraud like this are not uncommon, especially outside the USA. In early February 2021, the Myanmar military justified its coup against the civilian government by alleging voter fraud in the most recent election (Goodman 2021). Elites have made unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud in order to cast doubt on unfavorable or potentially damaging electoral results. Though accusations of misconduct are a frequent feature of electoral politics, the effects of this phenomenon on voter beliefs and attitudes have not been extensively studied. While recent events and the voluminous elite cues literature (e.g., Zaller 1992) lead us to expect that fraud claims would have a deleterious effect, several streams of previous research suggest that political leaders may have a limited ability to alter citizen’s attitudes about the legitimacy of foundational political institutions like elections by inventing accusations of fraud. Recent studies of the 2016 US presidential election using panel designs provide mixed evidence on the effect of voter-fraud claims. Respondents may distrust the sources of these claims and in turn discount the messages they offer
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