The effects of transportation energy policy on fuel consumption and transportation safety

Abstract

This paper examined the impact of transportation energy policies on traffic safety through policy simulations. Considering the changes in the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and in vehicle stock composition as a result of policy changes, the impacts of these changes on traffic accidents were examined in terms of the number of traffic accidents, traffic fatalities, and total accident costs. The main focus was on the following policy alternatives: Fuel tax, mileage based a VMT tax, Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) and Pay-at-the-pump (PATP) insurance premium policy, and the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards regulations. By integrating three interrelated economic demand decisions fully (size of the vehicle stock, use of the vehicle stock, and energy efficiency), the short-run, long-run and dynamic effects of a policy change can be predicted. The results showed that the share of light trucks will keep increasing in the future in all policy alternatives and that fuel consumption will decrease compared to the baseline in every scenario except for the VMT tax policy. The results also show that the fatality rates per vehicle miles traveled will decrease, but the CAFE policy will result in more fatalities and higher fatality rates compared to the baseline scenario. The results may provide guidance as to what would reduce the energy dependency while reducing the undesirable side effects related to traffic safety. The outcomes of this research will provide a set of specific results comparing policy scenarios in a consistent manner. The results will provide guidance as to whether the policy option would improve energy dependency while reducing the undesirable side effects, such as the problems related to the environment and the safety of motor vehicle travel.