The Effects of Demographic Considerations on Public Infrastructure Expenditures in Nigeria's Rivers State Local Government Areas (2003-2017)

Abstract

Demographic factors though mostly neglected are noted to influence the capacity of capital investments on public infrastructure development. This study empirically assessed the effect of demographic factors on public infrastructure expenditures in Nigeria's Rivers state local government areas (LGAs) from 2003-2017. Secondary data were collected which included capital expenditure (capex) on one side and various demographic variables (population, population density, number of households, and per capita revenue) on the other, obtained from public expenditure records, yearly appropriation bill or budgets, national population commission, National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria Publications, and some research articles. The population of the study is the 23 LGAs of Rivers state. Data analysis was carried out using mainly multiple regression method. At 5 % level of significance, the study reveals that there is significant relationship between aggregate capital expenditure and demographic factors in the Rivers state local government areas. However, in relation to individual demographic factors, only population density is significantly and positively related with Capex. The study concludes that Rivers state LGAs do give significant consideration to demographics in their capital allocation to infrastructural developments. Though this is true, a close investigation reveals that the adjusted R2 value is 0.429 indicating a not too strong statistical association, also only population density is positively considered by the LGAs, the other demographic variables though significant are negative to capital expenditure. The Study recommended among others that the LGAs should give a much more holistic attention to demographic demands in the dissemination of capital allocation to public infrastructure developments through policy formulations and strict adherence to it; adequate planning, and systematic funding.