The Effects of Changes in Population Characteristics on U.S. Consumption of Selected Foods

Abstract

Numerous changes have occurred in the characteristics of the U.S. population since 1960. A steady decline in the birth rate has resulted in a decrease in average household size and the number of preteen children. Also, a sharp increase has occurred in the number of teenagers, young adults, and senior citizens. Other significant demographic shifts since 1960 include a decline in the proportion of the population living in rural areas, the northeast, and north central regions, and an increase in the proportion of the population consisting of nonwhite persons. Several studies indicate that demographic factors affect food-purchasing decisions, but few studies have examined the impact of changing population characteristics on aggregate food consumption. The purpose of this paper is to explore past effects and implications of probable future changes in U.S. population characteristics on aggregate consumption of sixteen food categories. While past studies (LeBovit, Price, Schrimper, Serow) focus primarily on the changing age-sex composition of the population this paper examines, in addition, the impact of changes in racial mix, household size, and location of residence on aggregate food consumption. Undoubtedly, statistical problems and data inadequacies have contributed to the general lack of research on the relationship between population characteristics and aggregate food consumption. Population characteristics for the most part change slowly over time, making it difficult, if not impossible, to estimate their effect on aggregate food consumption using time-series data. Cross-section data have been widely used to estimate the impact of particular demographic