The Effect of Revocation of Value Added Tax Exemption on Marine and Fishery Imports: CGE Model Ex-Ante Analysis

Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Purpose This study aims to analyse the potential impacts of free trade agreement (FTA) between Indonesia and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries by eliminating import tariffs in the halal food sector on welfare, gross domestic product (GDP) and trade balance. OIC countries as the second-largest organisation after the United Nations are the potential markets for the halal food industry. Design/methodology/approach This study used the Global Trade Analysis Project database version 10 by adopting a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for two scenarios. The first scenario stated that Indonesia should conduct an FTA with ten potential OIC countries as export destination, while the second one stated that it should be conducted with all OIC countries. Findings Indonesia is predicted to get the highest increase in welfare by making an FTA with all OIC countries. Scenario 2 showed that Indonesia had much higher changes in real GDP with a positive change of 0.0018%. Even though it is projected to experience a surplus in the trade balance in both scenarios, Indonesia is predicted to experience a decline in exports for the particular halal food sector. The findings contribute some new insights to the existing literature, revealing an alignment between economic integration and the concept of international trade in Islam. Research limitations/implications The limitation of this study is the available data that cannot describe the population of all OIC countries. Only 31 countries out of a total of 56 OIC countries can be used in research. The scope of research is limited to analysing FTAs between Indonesia and OIC countries in the form of abolishing import tariffs and does not include non-tariff barrier issues such as halal certification. Practical implications The preferential trade agreement is considered relevant as Indonesia’s initial commitment to conduct a bilateral trade with ten selected OIC countries. The Indonesia Government, however, still needs to make several mitigation efforts in various sectors experiencing losses as a result of economic integration, such as by creating a more conducive business climate, supporting the sources of capital, facilitating bureaucratic affairs, as well as providing tax incentives. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the critical aspects of the FTA’s impacts on halal food sectors by optimizing the reduction of import tariffs of OIC countries. Different from previous studies, this study applied a static CGE model to examine the impacts of FTA on macroeconomic indicators.

This study quantified the impacts of climate change on human health through undernourishment using two economic measures. First, changes in morbidity and mortality due to nine diseases caused by being underweight as a child were analyzed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with changes in the labor force, population, and demands for healthcare taken into consideration. Second, changes in mortality were taken from the CGE simulation and assessed economically by the value of lives lost and willingness to pay to reduce the risk. Model uncertainties in future crop yields and climate conditions were considered using future projections from six global crop models and five global climate models. We found that the economic valuation of healthy lives lost due to undernourishment under climate change was equivalent to −0.4 % to 0.0 % of global gross domestic product (GDP) and was regionally heterogeneous, ranging from −4.0 % to 0.0 % of regional GDP in 2100. In contrast, the actual economic losses associated with the effects of additional health expenditure and the decrease in the labor force due to undernourishment resulting from climate change corresponded to a − 0.1 % to 0.0 % change in GDP and a − 0.2 % to 0.0 % change in household consumption, respectively, at the global level.

Slovak Republic is in the process of transformation from a centrally planned to a market economy. Aiming to enter the European Union(EU), the country will become part of a common internal market. In so doing, it will become part of a customs union applying free movement of goods and services within the member states, without any tariff or non-tariff barriers and a common foreign trade policy in relation to third countries. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of a medium and long term macroeconomic, foreign trade policy of Slovak Republic; the period under evaluation is from year 1996 to 2006. This research aims to find out how the abolishment of tariffs and non-tariff barriers in relation to EU countries and the foreign trade policy unification will influence the development of Slovak Republic’s balance of trade, aggregate domestic product and other macroeconomic indicators. In addition, the author also investigates the impacts of tax policy unification with the EU, owing to the existing differences. In particular, this article prepares a progressive, descriptive, and analytical tool called symmetric input-output(I-O)table, also referred to as Leontief-type of input-output table, for the Slovak economy. The data is then applied in a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model for analysis. Tariff reduction consequential to EU accession has generally positive impacts to aggregate variables and also to sectoral development. However, it also creates pressure on trade balance deficit. It is recommended that foreign trade reform is linked with other policy measures. The impacts are moderate, not radical.

Developing ‘travelthai’: a dynamic Computable general equilibrium model for tourism of Thailand and case applications on tourism setbacks and tourism-related fiscal policies

The implementation of import policy raises critical questions related to fiscal and economic aspects, especially regarding the impact of imposing import VAT without exemption facilities and import duties on premium beef imports for the Indonesian economy. This study investigates the effects of taxation tariffs on premium beef from Japan. This research is a quantitative study using a disaggregated Computable General Equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (CGE-GTAP) analysis. It focuses on the impact of predictor simulations on economic variables consisting of GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, equivalent variation, domestic production and demand, and prices. The study compares scenarios when VAT is imposed, when import duty preference under IJEPA is applied, and when VAT is imposed and import duty rates are increased to protect domestic producers. The results of this study show that the impact of the IJEPA agreement between Indonesia and Japan, especially regarding the import of premium beef, benefits both parties, even though the tariff regulated in IJEPA for premium beef is the same as the MFN tariff. There was an increase in GDP, imports, trade balance, domestic production and demand, and prices, but exports and welfare declined. Both simulations showed similar results, but the increase in import duties demonstrated a greater magnitude. This means that producers experience a greater positive impact, but consumers suffer greater losses as well. This study demonstrates that the imposition of VAT accompanied by import duty rates in IJEPA can have a positive effect on the national economy. It is recommended to continue this policy.

Histamine levels in samples of fish and marine products were determined by capillary zone electrophoresis using phosphate buffer at pH 2.44 and UV detection at 214 nm. A plot of the area of the peaks versus histamine concentration was linear over the range of 1–100 ppm with a correlation coefficient of 0.9996. Calibration using the height of the peak also gave good correlation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9969, at concentrations between 1 ppm and 20 ppm. The recovery of added histamine in different samples of fish and fish products was, on average, 99.65%. The method described in this work was used for the quantitation of histamine in fish and fish products.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented changes in the daily lives of people in the United States and across the world, particularly around how households consume critical resources. We fielded a survey to a national U.S. sample (n = 1214) to quantify the nature and extent of perceived change in household consumption of energy, water, information and communication technology (ICT) services, transportation, and grocery and non-grocery shopping during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that most survey respondents report increased consumption of electricity and water, but they did not report altered heating and cooling energy consumption. Respondents reported sharp increases in work-related ICT usage for medium- and high-income respondents, and increased ICT usage for recreation and entertainment across all income categories during the pandemic. Nearly half of car-based commuters stopped commuting, with higher shares of medium- and high-income respondents shifting to working from home instead of commuting by car. Respondents shopped less frequently, spent more on both grocery and non-grocery items, and moved their shopping online—indicating that the pandemic hastened the ongoing shift to online modes of resource consumption. Low-income households and respondents of color reported different shifts in consumption in comparison to higher income households and white households. Finally, more than half of our respondents stated that their altered consumption patterns will persist post-pandemic, pointing to potential long-term shifts in consumption behaviour. These findings provide useful empirical evidence for perceived changes in household resource consumption during the pandemic, suggest that we need to better protect low-income and Black households from the effects of large-scale disruptions, and can inform more effective and equitable disaster response policies.

Exchange rate is one of the major trade policy instruments used to correct current account deficit. This study used the standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to analyze the possible effects of exchange rate policy on the Sudanese economy. Sudan social accounting matrix (SAM) for year 2000 was used as a core database for the model. The results revealed that depreciation of exchange rate improved the GDP, due to improvement in the balance of trade, regardless of deterioration in total absorption level and agricultural exports benefits more from depreciation than the industrial sector. On the other hand, appreciation resulted in deterioration of gross domestic product (GDP) and improvement of private consumption. Finally, depreciation of the exchange rate had better implication on the economy as a whole and on the agricultural sector in particular, than appreciation of the exchange rate. Key words: Exchange rate, computable general equilibrium model, social accounting matrix.

Determinants of Trade Balance in Vietnam During the Period 1989-2013

Depending on the technology used to produce liquid biofuels, they can be classified into: first-, second-, and third-generation biofuels. The first generation uses as feedstock edible biomass such as corn and sugar cane, the second generation uses lignocellulosic biomass such as forest residues, and the third generation uses algae. The technologies employed to produce first-generation liquid biofuels are more developed and mature than those employed by the second- and third-generation. However, the fact that they use edible crops as feedstock leads to a debate about the negative impacts that this can cause in an economy, particularly over the prices of the food sector. This work joins this debate by analyzing the economic impacts that introducing ethanol produced from rice can cause in the Japanese economy. A comparative-static, multi-sector, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to execute the analysis. The model simulates a neoclassical economy where producers maximize profits subject to technological constraints, and households maximize utility subject to budget constraints. It incorporates intermediate demands, has a government and an investment agent, and includes the rest of the world interacting with the economy through exports, imports, and transfers. Different case study scenarios have been set based on two criteria: the bioethanol production process and the gasoline-ethanol mix ratio. Among the bioethanol production processes, an only ethanol production system, and an ethanol and power production system are considered. For the gasoline-ethanol mix ratio the model includes a biofuel penetration rate parameter that represents how much of the gross output of the gasoline sector is replaced by the new biofuel. We run various simulations for different values of this biofuel penetration rate parameter (in a range from 5% to 85%) with the intention to cover all the common ethanol fuel mixtures standards. The relevance of the study is that understanding the consequences of introducing biofuels into an economy is crucial to be able to design a supportive policy that helps to enhance the positive effects and decrease the negative ones. This work offers that understanding by analyzing and measuring the impact of allocating part of the domestic rice production to produce ethanol. Changes in prices and gross outputs for the different sectors in the economy for the different scenarios are some of the results. Additionally, how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), international trade (exports and imports), and emissions of CO2 behave before the introduction of bioethanol is inquired. Our main results are as follows. (1) The food sector is not affected significantly by the introduction of ethanol; instead, the sectors related to food production that suffer more negative impacts are the other crops farming and vegetable oils sectors. (2) The economic sectors more sensitive in price to the introduction of bioethanol are (in descending order): other crops farming, petroleum refinery products, and paddy rice. (3) The trend for the real GDP is to decrease as more bioethanol is introduced into the economy, and the net trade flows keep almost constant. (4) First-generation bioethanol is not a cost-effective measure for CO2 emissions reductions.

Impact of Indonesian Commitments and Other Policy Options Under the WTO on the Marcroeconomy, Agriculture and Household Income

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)Comprehensive are the most distinctive aspect of the TPP. (Petri and Plummer (2016), p. 5)I. INTRODUCTIONThe proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement (FTA) among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for approximately 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. For the United States, the 11 potential TPP partners already account for 45 percent of U.S. exports.1 Moreover, the United States already has in place FTAs with 6 of these 11 countries.2 Other TPP countries also have FTAs in place with several countries. Hence, TPP is designed to expand trade-policy liberalization among a larger number of countries, to deepen the degree of trade-policy liberalization by lowering non-tariff trade barriers and other fixed trade costs (including liberalizing trade in services and lowering foreign direct investment (FDI) barriers), and to improve harmonization of trade and FDI policies. The likely most substantive contribution of the TPP is to reduce an overwhelming array offixed costs that firms face in exporting goods and services to foreign markets. The comprehensive rules noted above in Petri and Plummer (2016) should reduce such export fixed costs. In other words, in stark contrast to most previous FTAs, the TPP is unique and unprecedented in two dimensions. First, the TPP will improve the of international trade and FDI to allow all countries' firms to trade on a fairer and more transparent footing. Second, by lowering variable and fixed trade costs, the TPP will enable a greater number of firms to export to foreign markets.Prior to any new FTA formation, academic, business, and government economists typically conduct ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the (expected) economic benefits and costs to nations' trade, employment, and real gross domestic products (GDPs) and national incomes. Such models provide quantitative predictions of the effects of an agreement, typically using multi-sector, multi-country frameworks with factors of production (such as labor) adjusting between industries (and some models even allow net employment increases or decreases). While several such CGE models have been implemented for TPP and their predictions summarized and contrasted,3 two prominent CGE analyses are those by Petri and Plummer (2016) and the U.S. International Trade Commission, ITC (2016). Petri and Plummer (2016) is an updated version of Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2011) and suggests that annual exports of the United States would increase by about 9 percent from TPP (by year 2030, relative to the baseline), while annual U.S. real GDP would increase 0.5 percent (in their analysis, employment is unchanged, assuming full employment). In contrast, ITC (2016), a study mandated by the U.S. Trade Priorities Act following President Obama's notification, used a CGE model and found-under some different, and more traditional, assumptions-that annual U.S. exports to the world would grow only 1 percent (though by 5.6 percent with TPP members) and annual U.S. imports would grow similarly (relative to the baseline). ITC (2016) also predicted that U.S. real GDP would increase only 0.2 percent, which is 40 percent of the 0.5 percent impact in the Petri and Plummer (2016) study.4 While many observers claim that such impacts are small (cf., Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2016), in this era of annual real GDP growth rates among developed countries of 2 percent, additional annual growth of 0.2-0.5 percent is substantive and should not be discounted.5This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. We do this by bringing to the fore five issues that traditional CGE models ignore; consequently, we will argue that traditional predicted CGE estimates of the trade and real income effects of TPP, such as those in ITC (2016), should be interpreted as a likely floor in terms of potential benefits. …

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to examine how the European–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) impacts on the Vietnamese economy in the case of the removal of industrial tariffs. Design/methodology/approach The authors construct a social accounting matrix based on the latest data of the Vietnam input-output Table for the year 2012 and then apply the CGE model to simulate the economic scenarios when the tariff rate of the industrial sector reduces to 0 percent. Findings The first simulation results demonstrate that the elimination of tariffs in the industrial sector will lead to a 9.13 percent increase in household consumption, together with an increase in the factors of production of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors by 9.61, 9.74 and 8.21 percent, respectively. The EVFTA also causes a deficit in the trade balance because the value of imports increases by 12.54 percent, while exports’ value slightly increases by 2.71 percent. Furthermore, there has been a drop of 2.29 percent in the total government income; nevertheless, social welfare witnesses a gain of 9.13 percent. The second scenario simulation draws crucial attention to policymakers that a small fluctuation in the production tax rate will cause a significant change in the economy. Practical implications The reduction of tariff in the industrial sector will increase the social welfare and strengthen the whole economy regarding the growth of household consumption, factors of production and trade value. On the unfavorable side, the EVFTA causes a national budget deficit and puts pressure on domestic production. This paper is a valuable reference for governments and policymakers when they decide to reduce tariffs or adjust production taxes once Vietnam integrates into the world economy. Originality/value This study differs from previous research works by utilizing a static CGE model to investigate the impact of removing the industrial tariff on the economy under EVFTA.

This study examined the effectiveness of Value Added Tax (VAT) exemptions on the growth of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria, with specific focus on the North-Central region. VAT exemptions are intended to reduce the tax burden on SMEs, improve cash-flow, and stimulate business expansion; however, empirical evidence on their actual impact remains limited. The study therefore assessed SME awareness and utilization of VAT exemptions, the influence of exemptions on key growth indicators, the effect on cash-flow and compliance costs, and the administrative challenges that hinder their effectiveness. The Tax Compliance Theory provided the theoretical foundation for understanding SME behavioural responses to tax incentives. A survey research design was employed, and data were collected from 370 SME operators through a structured Likert-scale questionnaire. Descriptive statistics revealed moderate awareness and limited guidance from tax authorities, with mean responses indicating that many SMEs seldom receive adequate information on VAT exemptions. Inferential results showed that VAT exemptions positively influence business growth, particularly in revenue performance, cash-flow improvement, and input procurement. Regression analysis indicated that the perceived contribution of VAT exemptions to overall growth is a significant predictor of SMEs’ interaction with tax authorities, while administrative complexity negatively affects utilization, though not significantly. The study concludes that VAT exemptions provide meaningful financial relief to SMEs but their effectiveness is constrained by low awareness, limited administrative support, and procedural bottlenecks. It recommends enhanced communication by tax authorities, simplified exemption procedures, continuous monitoring of policy impact, and integration of VAT incentives into broader SME development strategies. Strengthening these areas will ensure that VAT exemptions more effectively promote SME competitiveness, sustainability, and long-term economic contribution in Nigeria.