The Effect of Hot Days on Birth Rates in Serbia: Regional Aspect

Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run.

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects of hot days on the birth rate in the Belgrade Region. The facts that even a quarter of the population and live births are concentrated in the capital and that Belgrade stands out as a heat island with an above average air temperature make this analysis fully justified and significant. The authors use data from the Demographic Statistics on almost 108.000 live births in the capital in the period 2015-2020, as well as data from the Digital Atlas of Serbia on daily average temperatures in the same period. Our approach, based on regression analysis, allows examining the effects of random variations in the distribution of daily air temperatures (the focus is on days with an average temperature above 26.6°C) on the birth rate up to 10 months after exposure (to high air temperatures). The main results indicate a strong negative eff ECT of hot days on the birth rate 9 months after exposure to high temperatures. Such findings help explain the observed decline in birth rates during the spring months, and as such may be useful in formulating strategies to mitigate the effects of hot temperature shocks to which the population of Belgrade will be increasingly exposed in the future. The questions that arise for future research are the following: can we talk about a birth compensation period after heat waves, and will climate change increasingly move births to the summer months, bearing in mind that the population's exposure to high temperatures in the third quarter of the year is increasing.

The formation of a specific socio-psychological discourse regarding demographic processes in Bulgaria, a country which lost over 2 million of its population from 1989 to 2019, is presented in the article. In the public debate in Bulgaria there is an overproduction of terms that attempt to describe negative demographic trends (e.g.: “genocide”, “demographic suicide”, “demographic catastrophe”, etc.). Despite the abundance of emotional assessments of the situation by political stakeholders and mass media representatives, the main dilemma is the question: is it a demographic crisis or a demographic disaster? In addition to the illustration on this issue at the national level, the author attempted to interpret it in ethno-demographic and regional aspect. The main theses of the author are confirmed by selected empirical data which illustrate the serious scale of depopulation of Bulgaria as a whole and its regions in particular, as well as the population aging and emigration of young and educated Bulgarians. Low birth rates of the ethnic Bulgarians are accompanied by high birth rates and natural increase of the Roma population. Attention is also drawn to the depopulation of Bulgarian villages, which has lasted since the 1950s, as well as to the concentration of population and investment in several large cities. The helplessness of Bulgarian society and Bulgarian politics, suffering from a long-term, chronic lack of an adequate approach to neutralizing negative, long-term social and demographic trends, is also emphasized.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Prior studies associate high temperature with preterm birth. We tested the hypotheses that acute exposure to extreme heat was associated with higher risk of live spontaneous preterm birth (≥20 and <37 completed weeks), and that risks were higher among people of colour and neighbourhoods with heat-trapping landcover or concentrated racialised economic disadvantage. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of people giving birth between 2007 and 2011 in Harris County, Texas (Houston metropolitan area) (n=198,013). Exposures were daily ambient apparent temperature (ATmax in 5°C increments) and dry-bulb temperatures (Tmax and Tmin >historical [1971-2000] summertime 99th percentile) up to a week prior for each day of pregnancy. Survival analysis controlled for individual-level risk factors, secular and seasonal trends. We considered race/ethnicity, heat-trapping neighbourhood landcover and Index of Concentration at the Extremes as effect modifiers. The frequency of preterm birth was 10.3%. A quarter (26.8%) of people were exposed to ATmax ≥40°C, and 22.8% were exposed to Tmax and Tmin >99th percentile while at risk. The preterm birth rate among the exposed was 8.9%. In multivariable models, the risk of preterm birth was 15% higher following extremely hot days (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01, 1.30) for ATmax ≥40°C vs. <20°C; HR 1.15 (95% CI 1.02, 1.28) for Tmax and Tmin >99th percentile). Censoring at earlier gestational ages suggested stronger associations earlier in pregnancy. The risk difference associated with extreme heat was higher in neighbourhoods of concentrated racialised economic disadvantage. Ambient heat was associated with spontaneous preterm birth, with stronger associations earlier in pregnancy and in racially and economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods, suggesting climate change may worsen existing social inequities in preterm birth rates.

To evaluate the association between ambient temperature and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). This retrospective cohort study included 28 397 women aged 40 years and younger who underwent oocyte retrieval at a tertiary hospital between January 2018 and December 2023. Women were grouped according to their average ambient temperatures 7 days after oocyte retrieval. The main outcome was severe to critical OHSS, and the secondary outcome was live birth rate. Of the 28 397 patients, 23 916 women (84.24%) experienced no OHSS or mild OHSS, 4250 women (17.77%) experienced moderate OHSS, and 231 women (0.97%) experienced severe to critical OHSS. Their average ambient temperatures were 15.27 ± 9.19°C, 15.83 ± 9.22°C, and 17.39 ± 8.88°C, respectively. The incidence rates of severe to critical OHSS were 0.61%, 0.72%, and 1.02% at ambient temperatures <10°C, between 10°C and 20°C, and >20°C, respectively. Using a two-piecewise linear regression model, the ambient temperature inflection point was calculated to be 22.1°C. The risk of severe to critical OHSS increased with ambient temperature until the turning point of 22.1°C (odds ratio, 1.11 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.22]; P = 0.043). The increase in average ambient temperature was significantly associated with the incidence of severe to critical OHSS (adjusted odds ratio, 1.025 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.04]; P = 0.001). There was no significant association between ambient temperature and live birth rate. Elevated ambient temperature after oocyte retrieval was associated with an increased risk of severe to critical OHSS. Physicians should be aware of OHSS in women who undergo oocyte retrieval on hot days.

Background: Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and there is evidence that exposure to high temperatures increases the risk of preterm birth. Previous studies show greater heat-related health impacts among people of color and raises the possibility that climate change could worsen existing racial disparities in preterm birth rates. Our objective was to assess the impact of extreme heat on preterm birth across racial/ethnic groups while taking into account neighborhood landcover characteristics that can influence local microclimates. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of pregnant women with spontaneous singleton births in Harris County, Texas, USA (Houston metropolitan area) during a time period that included an extreme heat event (2007-2011). We used survival analysis to model the risk of preterm birth (&lt;37 completed weeks) versus staying pregnant up to a week after extremely hot days, controlling for individual risk factors, secular and seasonal trends. Race/ethnicity and high-heat risk related neighborhood landcover (no water, &lt;5% tree canopy cover, &gt;60% impervious surface) were considered as effect modifiers. Results: We found an elevated risk of preterm birth associated with extreme heat the day prior to delivery. Risk estimates varied with extreme heat definitions (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval]: 1.17 [1.04, 1.32] for daily maximum apparent temperature ≥ 40°C vs. &lt; 20°C; and 1.09 [0.98, 1.21] for days with maximum and minimum temperatures above the 99th percentile of historical [1971-2000] summer months). Censoring at earlier gestational ages suggested an even greater effect prior to the 36th week of pregnancy. Neither maternal race/ethnicity nor residence in neighborhoods with heat-trapping land cover characteristics modified observed associations. Conclusions: Our environmental justice approach to assess the health impacts of climatic changes found evidence that an extreme heat event increased the risk of preterm birth in this highly acclimatized population.

Evidence suggests that heat exposure increases delivery risk for pregnant women. Acceleration of childbirth leads to shorter gestation, which has been linked to later health and cognitive outcomes. However, estimates of the aggregate gestational losses resulting from hot weather are lacking in the literature. Here, we use estimated shifts in daily county birth rates to quantify the gestational losses associated with heat in the United States from 1969 to 1988. We find that extreme heat causes an increase in deliveries on the day of exposure and on the following day and show that the additional births were accelerated by up to two weeks. We estimate that an average of 25,000 infants per year were born earlier as a result of heat exposure, with a total loss of more than 150,000 gestational days annually. Absent adaptation, climate projections suggest additional losses of 250,000 days of gestation per year by the end of the century. Hot weather can cause early childbirth, meaning shorter gestation. Daily US birth-rate data from 1969 to 1988 show that deliveries increased on hot days and that those births occurred up to two weeks early. Around 25,000 infants were born early each year, representing over 150,000 gestational days lost annually.

BACKGROUND: The regional dimension of public health is one characteristic of public health that reflects the effectiveness of social and economic change in society. The key components of which are health and demographic indicators. The regions current demographic situation is an essential component of comprehensive medical and social research. Health and demographic indicators describe the dynamics, state, and prospects of social and economic changes in health and society as a whole. The increase in the population and labor resources due to migration growth, the increase in mortality rates, the decline in the birth rate, and the aging of the nation presupposes the development and implementation of additional medico-demographic approaches to the strategic development of the region.&#x0D; AIMS: Аnalysis of key indicators of public health of Krasnodar Krai, including the main medico-demographic indicators in the dynamics for 20182020.&#x0D; MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis on some aspects of the regions public health for 20182020 was conducted. Included in the development are medico-demographic indicators of the population, fertility, mortality, natural increase (losses), and so forth, in the dynamics for 20182020. Data from the Federal Service of State Statistics and statistical data of reporting forms of medical organizations of Krasnodar Krai Information about medical organization (p. 30) were used in the study for the period under consideration. The study applied statistical, analytical, and descriptive methods. The statistical processing of the material was carried out with the help of Microsoft Office software package.&#x0D; RESULTS: Analysis of key regional medico-demographic indicators of Krasnodar Krai for the analyzed period from 2018 to 2020 has made it possible to identify population growth. These indicators include the increase in migration, the number of children, the population under working age, women of childbearing age, the decrease in the total and total fertility rates, the population of working age, and the increase in the overall mortality rate, which includes the working age and population loss. Diseases of the circulatory system, the nervous system, and neoplasm took the largest share in the structure of mortality in 2020. In the structure of mortality, diseases of the circulatory system, nervous system, and neoplasm took the largest share. One of the reasons for the increase in total mortality in 2020 was the death rate from COVID-19.&#x0D; CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of the main medico-demographic indicators as one of the key components of public health of Krasnodar Krai for 20182020 has been conducted.

This article analyses regional aspects of the Russian depopulation that started in 1992 and has accelerated since 1999. The decrease in population from 1992 was mainly due to natural decreases, especially in the central regions, and negative net migration, especially in the far eastern and northern regions. Since 1999 natural depopulation has accelerated in the central, Volga and north-west regions. There are two factors that contributed to the depopulation in Russia: an increase in early deaths of males observed, especially in the central and north-west regions and in large cities, and an overall decrease in birth rates.

The demographic aspects of countries and regions today is an important factor in their not only social, but also economic development and position in the world. Demographic trends are especially important for a state in whose territory, as in the Syrian People&amp;apos;s Republic (SAR), a military conflict continues, largely related to external intervention. Until 2011, i.e. before the outbreak of the military conflict, Syria remained one of the most economically developed countries in the West Asia region. But the result of the military conflict was numerous and serious demographic and socio-economic losses. Therefore, the author substantiates the point of view that among the most important tasks of the state remains the speedy restoration of not only the socio-economic sphere, but also positive demographic processes. The purpose of the article is to analyze the demographic situation in Syria in the XXI century, to identify the factors that influenced its formation and new trends and processes, their interrelation and interdependence. The research was carried out on the basis of statistical data provided by international organizations, primarily UNCTAD, for the period from 2000 to 2021, as well as on the basis of the analysis of available domestic and foreign scientific literature on the subject under consideration. The study showed that along with the growth of the share of the population of the SAR in regional indicators, the country retains significant specifics. The author notes, first of all, the preservation of relatively high birth rates of the population, a relatively low level of urbanization.

Throughout the XX century, the demographic policy of the Soviet State was aimed mostly at working-age population or labor resources, taking into account regional and territorial aspects. Demographic change of the early XXI century was the result of political events of the 1990s, when the concept of population policy was under the radar of the government. The socioeconomic cataclysms destabilized the employment structure of population, caused deterioration of living standards, which affected the demographic characteristics of the XXI century. The demographic policy crisis of the late XX century generated one of the crucial organizational issues faced by the northern regions. This article is dedicated to the main demographic trends in the northern regions of Buryatia, which were affected by the construction of the Baikal-Amur Mainline, since completion of the construction project until stabilization of socioeconomic situation in the country by the early 2010s. In the course of construction of the Baikal-Amur Mainline, Buryatia took the lead in terms of birth rate, and ranked last in mortality index per thousand people. This testified to relative density of young poplar and children in the age structure, as well as stable population reproduction with insignificant demographic fluctuations.

During the years of independence in Uzbekistan, special attention has been paid to the regional aspects of demographic issues based on the human factor, the principle of a healthy mother and a healthy child. The course of demographic processes changes in accordance with the natural, socio-economic and geographical conditions of the regions. The Fergana Valley is the most densely populated region of Uzbekistan, with a small area, heavy demographic load and the largest demographic potential. This article examines the reproduction of the population of the Fergana region, the general, special, specific and cumulative birth rates, survival, gross and net coefficients, and draws conclusions.