The Effect of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sub-Sectors in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach

Abstract

The issue of climate change has remained a source of concern to nations across the globe as researchers continue to investigate its effects on the agricultural sector. Evidence suggests that climate change may pose a serious threat to the agricultural sector in Nigeria. As a result, empirical studies have been done to investigate the effect of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural output; however, no study to the best of the researchers' knowledge, has examined the effect of climate change on the various sub-sectors of agriculture in both the long-run and short-run in a single study. To this end, this study analyzes the effect of climate change on the agricultural sub-sectors in Nigeria both in the long and short-run using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique of estimation. The study applies ARDL because it allows for the mixture of variables integrated in the order of I (0) and I (1) and offers unbiased estimates of the long-run model. It also provides estimates of the corresponding error correction model. The study employed annual time series data between the period 1981 and 2018. Annual data are obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The study revealed that carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has a positive and significant impact on crop production in both the long-run and short-run while temperature change does not exert any significant influence on crop production in both instances. The study also unraveled that CO2 emission and temperature change do not exert a significant impact on livestock production; however, temperature change was found to have a negative and significant impact on fish production in the long-run. Based on the findings, it is, therefore, recommended that the government, through the National Orientation Agency, should educate and sensitize farmers on the dangers of climate change to their production and enlighten them on the steps to take in mitigating such occurrences. Also, the Nigerian government needs to adopt policy measures to manage temperature change and collaborate with the private sector to invest in adaptive and mitigative strategies to protect fish production in Nigeria.