The economic impacts of climate change on Egypt's agriculture sector based on the random forest algorithm
This study employs the Random Forest algorithm to analyze the relationship between agricultural added value in Egypt, climate change, and fertilizer inputs. It also investigates the impact of poverty on carbon dioxide emissions, focusing on the connection between environmental sustainability and economic development. The results indicate that fertilizer inputs play a dominant role in predicting agricultural value-added: nitrogen (43.8%), phosphate (32.3%), and potash (20.6%), while climate change accounts for only 3.3%. This suggests that Egypt’s agriculture has not yet been significantly affected by climate change. Additionally, the analysis of poverty and emissions reveals that poverty reduction, while improving living standards, may simultaneously increase energy consumption and emissions, posing challenges for sustainable development. The study concludes that agricultural productivity in Egypt is currently more influenced by fertilizer use than by climate change. Furthermore, addressing poverty without implementing appropriate environmental safeguards could exacerbate carbon emissions. Therefore, achieving sustainability requires a balanced approach to poverty reduction and environmental conservation. The findings offer practical insights for policymakers, including environmental advocates and economists. They highlight the importance of enacting regulations that promote the use of green technologies and sustainable agricultural practices, while designing poverty reduction strategies aligned with long-term environmental sustainability. These measures will help reconcile economic growth with environmental conservation.
- Research Article
5
- 10.1002/cl2.209
- Jan 1, 2018
- Campbell Systematic Reviews
PROTOCOL: Incentives for climate mitigation in the land use sector: a mixed-methods systematic review of the effectiveness of payment for environment services (PES) on environmental and socio-economic outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.
- Research Article
21
- 10.3390/en12010138
- Jan 1, 2019
- Energies
Climate change is an important global environmental threat. Agriculture aggravates climate change by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and in response, climate change reduces agricultural productivity. Consequently, the modern agricultural development mode has progressively transformed into a kind of sustainable development mode. This study aimed to determine the environmental impact and carbon footprint of Dongshan tea from Yilan County. Environmental impact was assessed with use of SimaPro version 8.0.2 and IMPACT2002+. Results showed that climate change has the largest impact upon it in general, followed by human health, natural resources, and ecosystem quality. Furthermore, with use of the IPCC 2007 100a method for carbon footprint of products (CFP), conventional tea was found to have a CFP of 7.035 kgCO2-e, and its main contributors are the raw material (35.15%) and consumer use (45.58%) phases. From this case study, we found that the hotspots of the life cycle of environmental impact of Taiwanese tea mainly come from fertilizer input during the raw material phase, electricity use during manufacturing, and electricity use during water boiling in the consumer use phase (which contributes the largest impact). We propose the ways for consumers to use of highly efficient boiling water facilities and heating preservation, and the government must market the use of organic fertilizers in the national policy subsidies, and farmers have to prudent use of fertilizers and promote the use of local raw fertilizers, and engagement in direct sales for reducing the environmental impacts and costs of agricultural products and thus advancing sustainable agriculture development.
- Research Article
2
- 10.55124/jahr.v1i1.78
- Jun 25, 2021
- Journal of Advanced Agriculture & Horticulture Research
Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat
- Discussion
25
- 10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.003
- Oct 9, 2008
- American Journal of Preventive Medicine
Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.clpl.2024.100077
- Nov 8, 2024
- Cleaner Production Letters
A comprehensive analysis of sustainable fertilizer-related publications within the context of circular economy: Insights from the field of business management
- Research Article
15
- 10.3390/su16198480
- Sep 29, 2024
- Sustainability
Agricultural productivity in China is a fundamental driver of food security and economic growth. Yet, the sector faces profound challenges due to environmental degradation and climate change, which threaten sustainable agricultural practices. This research examines the effects of technological innovations on agricultural Total Factor Productivity and environmental sustainability in China from 2012 to 2022. The study seeks to understand how technological advancements, when considered alongside socioeconomic variables, impact agricultural output while balancing ecological integrity. Employing a comprehensive methodological framework, this research integrates fixed-effects, random-effects, and multilevel mixed-effects models to analyze crucial factors including rural education, technological capability, and environmental conservation initiatives. The study further utilizes structural equation modeling to evaluate both the direct and indirect effects of these determinants on productivity. The results demonstrate that technological innovations substantially enhance agricultural productivity, particularly in provinces with higher socioeconomic development. Additionally, sustainable farming practices and tailored policy interventions are identified as vital in addressing regional productivity imbalances. The research concludes by underscoring the necessity for the continued integration of environmental considerations and emerging technologies to ensure the sustainability of agricultural growth in the long term.
- Research Article
242
- 10.1086/420968
- Apr 1, 2004
- Economic Development and Cultural Change
A salient theme in D. Gale Johnson’s work is the importance of agricultural development for general prosperity and for economic diversification (e.g., Johnson 2000). Johnson has also noted that most of the world’s poor are engaged in farming, so that a key focus of development policy is to raise the incomes of farmers. From a global perspective, increasing the productivity of agriculture, given the fixity of land, is necessary for both poverty reduction and the development of the nonagricultural sector. At the level of the world, agricultural productivity gains, poverty reduction, and the growth of the nonfarm sector are complements. However, the question remains whether these observations imply that every poor country should focus its public resources on agricultural development in order to raise the incomes of people now engaged in farming and whether such a policy is necessary for obtaining economic diversity. In this article, we use the experience of India over the past 30 years to address the issue of whether agricultural technical change actually leads to economic diversification and income growth within the rural sector in the context of an open-economy country in which there are cross-area trade and capital flows. We focus in particular on the rural sector because this is the sector in which linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are thought to be the strongest. We exploit the fact that India has maintained a policy of openness with respect to agricultural technology over this period, permitting and actively supporting agricultural development, and has moved to a reformed regime in which goods are traded and capital is more mobile in the 1990s. Evidence on the relationship between agricultural growth and nonfarm
- Research Article
- 10.3390/su151310237
- Jun 28, 2023
- Sustainability
Abnormal climatic changes and related disasters are increasing in prevalence, with many negative impacts on ecosystems and agricultural production. The area of land in China is vast, including diverse terrain and climate types, and a substantial area is used to grow food crops. Therefore, climate change is having a huge impact on China’s grain production. Currently, the relationship between climate change and carbon emissions during grain production and the underlying mechanism have not been fully clarified. Therefore, this study used an ordinary least squares regression (OLS) model and the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to examine the influence of climatic change and carbon emissions during grain production, and we constructed mediation effect models to explore the mechanism of influence between them by utilizing panel data in China from 2000 to 2020. In addition, we also examined the adjustment effect of green technology progress and farmland scale. The study found that China’s carbon emissions during grain production increased from 2000 to 2015 and then presented a decreasing trend after 2015. We found that the annual average temperature has a prominent positive effect on carbon emissions during grain production, while the annual average rainfall has a negative effect. Among them, temperature changes mainly lead to the increase in carbon emissions during grain production through the increase in “fertilizer use” and “multiple cropping index”, but the mechanism of rainfall changes’ impact on carbon emissions during grain production is still unclear. In addition, green technology progress and farmland scale play adjustment roles in the impact of climate change on carbon emissions during grain production, and they could significantly suppress carbon emissions. On the basis of the conclusions in this paper, we propose that strengthening climate change adaptation is an important prerequisite for reducing carbon emissions during grain production. Furthermore, China should continue to reduce fertilizer use, facilitate the application of agriculture green technology, and expand the scale of farmland to achieve agricultural carbon emission reduction.
- Research Article
48
- 10.1016/j.tplants.2021.03.004
- Apr 20, 2021
- Trends in plant science
Gaining Acceptance of Novel Plant Breeding Technologies.
- Discussion
24
- 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/041001
- Oct 26, 2012
- Environmental Research Letters
Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia
- Research Article
20
- 10.1111/dech.12496
- Mar 1, 2019
- Development and Change
Global Development, Converging Divergence and Development Studies: A Rejoinder
- Research Article
41
- 10.1111/dpr.12584
- Sep 7, 2021
- Development Policy Review
Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?
- Research Article
- 10.1002/fsat.3403_11.x
- Aug 31, 2020
- Food Science and Technology
Modelling food demand in the 21st century
- Conference Article
4
- 10.3390/ecas2020-08153
- Nov 13, 2020
This paper presents an overview of the favorable risk factors in agriculture in terms of encumbering this area of inevitable climate change. The development of a sustainable agriculture is combined in the paper by pointing out the needs on which agricultural productions maintain their productivity using the technique of adapting to the motivational scale of Maslow, analyzing the evolution of needs determined based on the Martonne Index in the analysis of the cause of soil erosion in the water and wind equation. We highlighted the need to apply agricultural techniques depending on climatic zones due to the non-uniformity of geographical areas, the character of buffer zones in the protection of zonal biodiversity of natural resources. Methods of agricultural practice in the use of pesticides cause concern according to FAOSTAT data, some techniques of careful use of fertilizers are a factor in reducing plant protection products through other soil protection techniques. The implications for the adoption of the most innovative production techniques, the security in the handling of fertilizers can reduce the risk of pollution the importance of soil water in agricultural production practices being revealed in the paper. Avoiding environmental damage by caring for agricultural plantations contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in step with the need for refurbishment. A factor of research analysis was the more efficient assessment of the challenges of climate change solutions to reduce the carbon footprint on agricultural production indicates the need to depend agricultural production methods the effect of fertilizer imports on exports still indicates the need for fertilizers and not the cause of abandonment of the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. New type agriculture in the conditions of cross-compliance imposed by the New Agricultural Policy implies precision alternatives involves the introduction of high-performance technologies and equipment to streamline the agricultural process and ensure production control. This method helps farmers to better understand and manage their crops, to take advantage of potential soils, but also to protect their crops from pollutants and pests. Agricultural management becomes efficient, (J. Bouma, et al., 1999) because field measurements and analysis of environmental factors weather phenomes, soil type and texture, seasonality, stage of plant development, provide farmers with the necessary resources to understand and effectively manage their crop. In the research stages we collected data and information that, in our opinion, are important for reorienting agricultural practices by standardizing agro-environmental measures in rural areas complete the ability to adapt agricultural practices as part of the economy.
- Research Article
5
- 10.1063/pt.3.2548
- Oct 1, 2014
- Physics Today
Climate change is a complex and contentious public issue, but the risk-management options available to us are straightforward and have well-characterized strengths and weaknesses.
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