Abstract
Since Turkey’s economy and population is rapidly growing, Turkey mostly meets its energy demand from imported fossil sources due to the very limited indigenous oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey has abundant renewable resources especially, hydro power potential to be used for generation of electricity. But only one-third of this significant economical potential could be used. This usage seems insufficient when compared with that of European countries. In order to analyze the potential long term impacts of the hydro power expanding shock on some macroeconomic variables of interest such as GDP, real consumption, real investment, exports, imports, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of hydro power shock under policy scenario doubling hydro power generation. The simulation results show that doubling hydro power have slightly positive effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions for Turkish economy.
Highlights
Turkey is seeking to cover an imminent shortfall in electricity as well as cut its dependence on foreign energy resources, mainly natural gas
Turkey has abundant renewable resources especially, hydro power potential to be used for generation of electricity
In order to analyze the potential long term impacts of the hydro power expanding shock on some macroeconomic variables of interest such as GDP, real consumption, real investment, exports, imports, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy
Summary
Turkey is seeking to cover an imminent shortfall in electricity as well as cut its dependence on foreign energy resources, mainly natural gas. One of the Turkish energy policies is to designate hydro and nuclear power as an essential source of energy, meeting at least one-fifth of Turkey’s power needs within the decades. Turkey is not a rich country in terms of the hydrocarbon (oil and natural gas, etc.) potential to be used for generation of electricity. Turkey has a strategy for developing the hydropower potential and expects a few hundred small hydro power plants to be constructed in the long run. Turkey must discover new and renewable energy resources. New and renewable resources other than hydro will not be sufficient to produce large amounts of electricity in the coming decades even if major efforts were made to develop them
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