Abstract
ObjectiveTo model population health impacts of dietary changes associated with the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (the ‘Eatwell Guide’).MethodUsing multi-state lifetable methods, we modelled the impact of dietary changes on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers over the lifetime of the current UK population. From this model, we determined change in life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that could be averted.ResultsChanging the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2) for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6) for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2) DALYs over the lifetime of the current population. A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000) new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000) new cases prevented in women, over the next ten years. Prevention of cardiovascular diseases and colorectal cancer is also large. However, if the diet recommended in the new Eatwell Guide is achieved with an accompanying increase in energy intake (and thus an increase in body mass index), around half the potential improvements in population health will not be realised.ConclusionsThe dietary changes required to meet recommendations in the Eatwell Guide, which include eating more fruits and vegetables and less red and processed meats and dairy products, are large. However, the potential population health benefits are substantial.
Highlights
Dietary carbohydrates are an important source of energy to support our day-to-day activities
Changing the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2) for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6) for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the lifetime of the current population
A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000) new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000) new cases prevented in women, over the ten years
Summary
Dietary carbohydrates are an important source of energy to support our day-to-day activities. Following a review of the latest evidence on carbohydrates and health, the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) advised the Government to reduce the recommended average intake of free sugars to no more than 5% of dietary energy intake and increase the recommended average intake of fibre to 30 grams per day [2]. This information has been incorporated into the healthy eating recommendations in the form of the Eatwell Guide [3], which was launched in March 2016
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