The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-integration Approach

Abstract

Tourism industry is considered a key driver promoting socioeconomic development in under development economy, but there are several factors which hindering this development. The terror incidence in swat valley have severely affected tourism industry of the area. Terrorism is a growing hazard across the globe with severs socio-economic consequences. Pakistan is also playing it’s was against terrorism that it has affected its various economic activities including tourism. During the first decade of the ongoing century, northern mountainous area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which was famous for tourism, was badly affected by incidences of terror2. The objective of this research work is to estimate the impact of terror incidents on domestic tourism in Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Swat Valley (TA –domestic visitors’ arrivals).The current research is an effort to evaluate the short-term and long-term association between events of terror and domestic visitation. Primary data was collected using stratified random sampling techniques and interview method and secondary data was taken from various sources to evaluate the model. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model is used to evaluate the data. The ARDL bound test confirms the co-integration between terror incidents and tourism. Additionally, the examined findings undoubtedly ensure the negative short-term and long-term impact of events of terror on domestic tourism in the study area.