The Degenerative Tendencies of Long‐Serving Governments…1963…1996…2009…the Conservatives in 2022?

Abstract

AbstractIs Boris Johnson's government suffering from the degenerative tendencies of long‐serving government as identified by Timothy Heppell? For his 2008 study, Heppell identified five symptoms of governing degeneration, namely: governing competence; leadership credibility; ideological division; abuses of power; and a renewed opposition/sense that it is time for a change. This approach was tested by Heppell on the longstanding Conservative administrations of 1951–64 and 1979–97, and the Labour administration between 1997 and (at the time of original publication) 2008. Thus, my hypothesis asks whether the similarly long‐serving Conservative government from 2010 to‐date might be exhibiting signs of similar governing degeneration on each of Heppell's criteria. I ask whether the Conservatives under Boris Johnson appear to lack the clear direction of travel and purpose that characterised the final period of the Macmillan/Home, Major, and Brown premierships. Whilst it is by no means the aim of this article to produce an electoral prediction, there is evidence to suggest the current Conservative administration has met the level of governing degeneration that affected the last years of the longstanding administrations evaluated by Heppell.