THE DANGERS OF DATA: Recognising the limitations of crime statistics

The latest data from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System – the most detailed source on the ‘who, what, when, where and how’ of fatal injuries in South Africa – shows that homicide remains the most common cause of injury-related deaths. Homicide rates varied significantly between the four major urban centres covered, and firearms were a key contributor to the high homicide rates. Alcohol was confirmed as an important risk factor for murder, with the highest percentage of alcohol positive cases being recorded in Cape Town.

BackgroundInjury mortality surveillance systems are critical to monitor changes in a population’s injury outcomes so that relevant injury prevention responses may be adopted. This is particularly the case in South Africa, where the injury burden is nearly twice the global rate. Regular evaluations of surveillance systems are pivotal to strengthening surveillance capacity, performance, and cost effectiveness. The National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS) is an injury mortality surveillance system that is currently focused in Mpumalanga and utilises manual and electronic web-based systems for data collection. This study explored Forensic Pathology Service (FPS) staff perceptions of the implementation barriers and facilitators of manual- and electronic injury mortality surveillance system methods.MethodsA qualitative study was employed using purposive sampling. Forty-seven participants, aged 29 to 59 years comprising 31 males and 16 females were recruited across 21 FPS facilities that serve the province. The formative evaluation occurred over the November 2019 to November 2022 period. Twelve focus group discussions were thematically analysed to determine emerging themes and patterns related to the use of the system using the WHO surveillance system guidelines as a framework.ResultsThe key themes concerning the barriers and facilitators were located along WHO attributes of simplicity, acceptability, timeliness, flexibility, data quality and stability. Distinctions between the manual and e-surveillance systems were drawn upon across the attributes highlighting their experience with the system, user preference, and its contextual relevance. With Mpumalanga predominantly rural, internet connectivity was a common issue, with most participants consequently showing a preference for the manual system, even though the electronic system’s automated internal validation process was of benefit. The data quality however remained similar for both methods. With program stability and flexibility, the manual system proved more beneficial as the dataset was reported to be easily transferrable across computer devices.ConclusionObtaining FPS perceptions of their experiences with the system methodologies are pertinent for the enhancement of injury surveillance systems so to improve prospective engagements with the systems. This will facilitate timely and accurate injury mortality information which is vital to inform public policy, and injury control and prevention responses.

This paper describes the first national burden of disease study for South Africa. The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, i.e. years of life lost (YLLs). In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, i.e. the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed. Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted. The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and AIDS model. The non-AIDS cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLL estimates. The top single cause of mortality burden was HIV/AIDS followed by homicide, tuberculosis, road traffic accidents and diarrhoea. HIV/AIDS accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%). Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and injuries 16% of YLLs. The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the burden of disease, especially with regard to unintentional injuries, respiratory disease, and nervous system, mental and sense organ disorders. The impact of HIV/AIDS is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010. This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause. South Africa is experiencing a quadruple burden of disease comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging chronic diseases, injuries, and HIV/AIDS. Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to HIV/AIDS can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years. An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately.

Firearm-related fatalities accounted for nearly half (46.1%) of all homicides in Cape Town in 2001. Cape Town\'s homicide rate of 88 per 100 000 population was among the highest of five cities that had full coverage by the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS), and while the number of non-firearm homicides has remained fairly constant, firearm homicides have steadily increased from 36 to 40 per 100 000 population between 1999 and 2001. Cape Town homicides from the NIMSS database for 2001 were extracted and descriptive variables for firearm versus non-firearm homicides were compared. Age, sex, population group, time, scene and suburb of death data were examined for both groups in order to identify potential risk factors for firearm homicide that could assist in the development of more accurate prevention strategies. Males were more frequently the victims of homicide than females, particularly among the economically active age group of 15 to 44 years. The top seven suburbs in which homicides occurred could be characterised as low-income communities and accounted for a significantly higher percentage of firearm homicides than non-firearm homicides. The research findings highlight the importance of strategies to reduce the proliferation of firearms and to minimise gunshot injuries as an urgent public health imperative. African Safety Promotion Vol.1(2) 2002: 19-25

To describe the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of adolescent homicide victims in Johannesburg, South Africa and to identify the victim and event characteristics associated with a positive BAC at the time of death. Logistic regression of mortality data collected by the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS). Johannesburg, South Africa. A total of 323 adolescent (15-19 years) homicide victims for the period 2001-9 who had been tested for the presence of alcohol. Data on the victims' BAC level, demographics, weapon or method used, scene, day and time of death were drawn from NIMSS. Alcohol was present in 39.3% of the homicide victims. Of these, 88.2% had a BAC level equivalent to or in excess of the South African limit of 0.05 g/100 ml for intoxication. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that a positive BAC in homicide victims was associated significantly with the victim's sex [male: odds ratio (OR) = 2.127; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.012-4.471], victim's age (18-19 years: OR = 2.364; CI = 1.343-4.163); weapon used (sharp instruments: OR = 2.972; CI = 1.708-5.171); and time of death (weekend: OR = 3.149; CI = 1.842-5.383; night-time: OR = 2.175; CI = 1.243-3.804). Excessive alcohol consumption is associated with a substantial proportion of adolescent homicides in Johannesburg, South Africa, and is more prevalent among male and older adolescent victims and in victims killed with sharp instruments over the weekends and during the evenings.

The Rapid Mortality Surveillance System has reported reductions in child mortality rates in recent years in South Africa (SA). In this article, we present information about levels of mortality and causes of death from the second SA National Burden of Disease Study (SA NBD) to inform the response required to reduce child mortality further. To estimate trends in and causes of childhood mortality at national and provincial levels for the period 1997 - 2012, to highlight the importance of the SA NBD. Numbers of registered child deaths were adjusted for under-reporting. Adjustments were made for the misclassification of AIDS deaths and the proportion of ill-defined natural causes. Non-natural causes were estimated using results from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System for 2000 and the National Injury Mortality Survey for 2009. Six neonatal conditions and 11 other causes were consolidated from the SA NBD and the Child Health Epidemiological Reference Group lists of causes of death for the analysis. The NBD cause-fractions were compared with those from Statistics South Africa, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Under-5 mortality per 1000 live births increased from 65 in 1997 to 79 in 2004 as a result of HIV/AIDS, before dropping to 40 by 2012. The neonatal mortality rate declined from 1997 to 2001, followed by small variations. The death rate from diarrhoeal diseases began to decrease in 2008 and the death rate from pneumonia from 2010. By 2012, neonatal deaths accounted for 27% of child deaths, with conditions associated with prematurity, birth asphyxia and severe infections being the main contributors. In 1997, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Mpumalanga and Eastern Cape provinces had the highest under-5 mortality, close to 80 per 1 000 live births. Mortality rates in North West were in the mid-range and then increased, placing this province in the highest group in the later years. The Western Cape had the lowest mortality rate, declining throughout the period apart from a slight increase in the early 2000s. The SA NBD identified the causes driving the trends, making it clear that prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, the Expanded Programme on Immunisation and programmes aimed at preventing neonatal deaths need to be equitably implemented throughout the country to address persistent provincial inequalities in child deaths. The rapid reduction of childhood mortality since 2005 suggests that the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal target of 25 per 1 000 for under-5 mortality is achievable for SA. Comparison with alternative estimates highlights the need for cause-of-death data from civil registration to be adjusted using a burden-of-disease approach.

ObjectiveTo describe the trends of drowning mortality in Vietnam over time and to identify socioeconomic characteristics associated with higher drowning mortality at the provincial level.MethodsWe analysed data from the Ministry...

To estimate the magnitude and characteristics of the injury burden in South Africa within a global context. The Actuarial Society of South Africa demographic and AIDS model (ASSA 2002) - calibrated to survey, census and adjusted vital registration data - was used to calculate the total number of deaths in 2000. Causes of death were determined from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System profile. Injury death rates and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. National years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by applying a ratio between YLLs and YLDs found in a local injury data source, the Cape Metropole Study. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years' (DALYs) rates were compared with African and global estimates. Interpersonal violence dominated the South African injury profile with age-standardized mortality rates at seven times the global rate. Injuries were the second-leading cause of loss of healthy life, accounting for 14.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of injury in most regions of the world but South Africa has exceedingly high numbers - double the global rate. Injuries are an important public health issue in South Africa. Social and economic determinants of violence, many a legacy of apartheid policies, must be addressed to reduce inequalities in society and build community cohesion. Multisectoral interventions to reduce traffic injuries are also needed. We highlight this heavy burden to stress the need for effective prevention programmes.

Rural farmers are not only facing challenges of severe drought blamed on the El Nino weather pattern, but the stock theft as well. The South African Police’s annual crime statistics report and surveys indicates that rural livestock farmers are mostly affected by stock theft in South Africa. The costs paid by these farmers to enhance security in the environs of their livestock roughly precede the financial planning meant for production. However, the research on the extent, economic impact, dark figures and problem areas of stock theft in rural areas remain limited. The National Crime Statistics about stock theft as administered and published by the South African Police Service remains the key focus of this paper. The responses of selected farmers indicate that there is no single solution tailor-made to fight against this phenomenon. The nature of this scourge extremely manifests itself in rural areas because it is not fully tackled by authorities. This paper draws from the detailed statistics reports of stock theft. Keywords: Crime Statistics, Livestock, Rural farmers, Police Service, Stock theft, Extension implication

The South African Police Service (SAPS) released the official crime statistics for 2008/2009 on 22 September 2009. As usual the statistics drew huge media and public interest. This article provides an overview of the key trends and offers an analysis of the statistics. Key trends include that the overall crime rate, after a five-year respite in which there was a downward trend, is on the increase; as are the so-called 'trio crimes' (house robberies, business robberies and car hijackings) and truck hijackings. This article briefly considers the controversy around the validity of the police's crime statistics and notes a few lessons from Colombia.

Although homicide is the leading cause of non-natural death for South African adolescents, little is known about the circumstances surrounding such homicides. This study examines homicides that occurred among adolescents...

Across the world, millions of women unintentionally become pregnant and decide to terminate the pregnancy. Despite progressive abortion laws in South Africa (SA), evidence suggests that many women of all ages still resort to unsafe terminations outside legal, designated facilities. Media reports alert the public to an increase in the illegal dumping of fetuses and abandoned babies, suggesting an increase in unsafe termination practices as well as concealed births. To examine mortality data to identify trends in the dumping of aborted fetuses and abandoned babies in SA. This study utilised data from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System in two provinces, namely Gauteng and Mpumalanga. A total sample of mortality data was used to analyse trends associated with this phenomenon from 2009 to 2011. Descriptive, exploratory statistics were used and included the calculation of crude population incidence rates for abortions and abandoned babies as well as figures (n) and percentages (%) for each category under investigation. An increase in the rate of discovery of non-viable fetuses was noted for both provinces over the 3-year period, while there was a significant decrease in the discovery of deceased abandoned babies in Gauteng only. The illegal dumping of fetuses and babies is a very real public health concern in both Gauteng and Mpumalanga. Information is insufficient for adequate surveillance, and improved data collection systems should be prioritised.

BackgroundFemicides, defined as the gender-based killing of women, are a pressing public health issue worldwide, with South Africa experiencing some of the highest rates globally. This study focuses on the North-west region of Tshwane, particularly the Garankuwa area, aiming to address gaps in understanding the epidemiology, demographics, circumstances, and pathology associated with femicides. The Garankuwa mortuary serves as the primary site for this investigation, providing a detailed analysis over a ten-year period, shedding light on contributing risk factors in the context of systemic gender inequality.ObjectivesThe study had four main objectives: to analyse the demographics and incidence rates of femicides in the North-west Tshwane area, to examine the circumstances surrounding femicides (including the time, location, and demographic risk factors), to identify the causes and pathological characteristics of femicides; and to observe trends in femicide rates over the ten-year study period.MethodsThis study was a retrospective cross-sectional descriptive analysis, focusing on all deceased females admitted to the Garankuwa mortuary from 2009 to 2018. The inclusion criteria comprised female cases at autopsy, with a suspected homicidal manner of death. Excluded were cases classified as suicides, accidents, or natural deaths after further examination. Data was collected through the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS) and cross-verified with post-mortem reports, police data and death registers.ResultsOver the ten-year period, the Garankuwa mortuary admitted an annual average of 1131 bodies, with approximately 23.5% (266) being female. Of these, 17.5% were identified as femicides. The average incidence rate of femicides was 11.2 per 100,000 female population, showing a general decline over the study period, except for notable increases in 2013 and 2016. The study found that the most common months for femicides were September and December, with most incidents occurring at home, followed by residential areas and medical facilities. The geographic analysis identified Temba, Rietgat, and Akasia as the areas with the highest number of femicide cases. Demographically, the majority of femicide victims were black, with the most affected age group being 18–39 years. The leading causes of death were gunshot wounds, sharp force injuries and blunt force trauma, with significant incidences of strangulation and asphyxial deaths, primarily affecting the neck and head regions.ConclusionThis study highlights the high incidence and distinct characteristics of femicides in the North-west Tshwane area, underscoring the role of socio-economic disparities and racial demographics. The findings emphasize the necessity for targeted prevention programs, stricter firearm control measures, and community-based violence prevention strategies. The demographic data indicate that young black women are particularly vulnerable, necessitating protective and educational initiatives tailored to this group.

This study describes the incidence and epidemiological characteristics of adolescent homicides (15–19 years) in Johannesburg, South Africa. A retrospective population-based study was conducted on cases drawn from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A total of 590 adolescent homicides were registered for 2001–2009 corresponding to an average annual homicide rate of 23.4/100,000. The average annual rate was 39.8/100,000 for males and 7.9/100,000 for females. Black and coloured adolescents had the highest homicide rates. There was a considerable decline in the firearm homicide rates over the study period. In contrast, sharp instrument and blunt force homicides increased. Public places were the predominant scenes for male deaths, while female homicides occurred primarily in residential locations. Most male homicides took place over weekend nights. Alcohol was a prominent feature of homicides. The high homicide rates reported in this study underscore the need to develop interventions directed specifically at adolescents. Prevention efforts are required to pay particular attention to black and coloured adolescent males, and to address the availability of weapons and alcohol use among adolescents.

The use of guns in crime remains high in South Africa. The annual report of the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS) for 2000 found that death caused by firearms is higher in South Africa than death occurring through road traffic accidents or any other external cause of non-natural death. The government maintains that controlling firearms remains a priority and is focusing on the implementation of the Firearms Control