Abstract
It is frequently noted that police crime statistics can reflect reality badly because of under-reporting and under-recording. Less frequently noted is the fact that other sources of data can be just as problematic. This article reflects on two sources of statistics on murder – the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System and the MRC’s Burden of Disease estimates – and argues that the incautious use of these data can lead to erroneous conclusions.
Highlights
Recognising the limitations of crime statisticsIt is frequently noted that police crime statistics can reflect reality badly because of under-reporting and under-recording
In these kinds of debate, empirical data about the extent of the problem and the costs incurred by society in seeking to contain it may not be decisive
This article looks at two recent examples of these problems, both arising in discussions relating to murder rates in South Africa, and contends that, in both cases, illegitimate conclusions were drawn
Summary
It is frequently noted that police crime statistics can reflect reality badly because of under-reporting and under-recording. This article looks at two recent examples of these problems, both arising in discussions relating to murder rates in South Africa, and contends that, in both cases, illegitimate conclusions were drawn Given that these errors were made on the basis of the crime data conventionally regarded as the most accurate and reliable, it suggests that researchers and policy-makers ought to be even more careful when dealing with data relating to other kinds of crime. The reason for doing this is that South Africa’s relatively young population means that when estimates are made of the causes of death, those that affect the young are increased relative to those that affect the old Even without this adjustment, the absolute values of the number and rate of murders predicted by the MRC are, respectively, 23% and 19% higher than those of the SAPS5 (Figure 1 and Table 1). In other words, that both the SAPS and the MRC are right
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