The coming wave of aluminum sheet scrap from vehicle recycling in the United States

Abstract

The emergence of mass-produced aluminum sheet intensive vehicles presents an opportunity for recyclers to shift towards high value recycling into wrought alloys. We use dynamic material flow analyses (2015–2050) to estimate the timing, scale, and composition of U.S. aluminum automotive body sheet (ABS) scrap generated from the aluminum ABS intensive vehicles with the highest U.S. sales: Ford F-150, Super Duty, Expedition, and Lincoln Navigator. Lifespan distribution models are derived for each vehicle, and 5xxx and 6xxx series sheet alloys are aggregated according to their copper and magnesium content. A Markov chain model is used to estimate the fraction of deregistered vehicles scrapped domestically versus exported.It is found that the above four vehicles account for around 1,200 kt of aluminum ABS embedded within the 2020 U.S. fleet. The aluminum ABS intensive construction of these vehicles presents a unique opportunity to U.S. recyclers. If production continues at the current volumes, aluminum ABS scrap from these vehicles will increase to approximately 125 kt/year in 2035 and 246 kt/year in 2050. The majority of this scrap will be available for U.S. processing with <<10% of deregistered vehicles exported or achieving vintage status. For comparison, only 121 kt of aluminum auto shred (containing negligible aluminum ABS) was domestically consumed in the U.S. in 2017. We analyze the composition of the future potential scrap streams, revealing the need for alloy separation and tramp element removal if closed loop aluminum ABS recycling is to be achieved.