The chronic cardiac insufficiency as a cause of death: the problems of statistical service and evaluation

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze the application of I50.9 code as initial cause of death (PBC) in various subjects of the Russian Federation in 2013-2019. The Rosstat data (Annual forms C41 and C51) based on the "Brief Nomenclature of Causes of Death of Rosstat" (KNPSR) in 2013-2019. The standardized mortality rates (SPS) were determined using corresponding software (state registration number 216661114), coefficient of variation (Cv) and the max/min ratio. In 2013-2019, the regional average value of the SCR from cardiac failure (code I50.9) decreased up to 4 times (from 6.3 ± 10.3 to 1.5 ± 3.5; p <0.0001), but Сv of regional SCR increased by almost 1.5 times (162% and 230%). The percentage of regions where cardiac failure was not indicated as PPP, increased from 8% in 2013 to 19% in 2019. However, only in the Yaroslavl Oblast and the Republic of Buryatia no case of indicating I50.9 code as PPP was registered. In five regions, less than 10 cases were registered in 7 years, in 3 regions an unstable tendency to increase in SDR from HF was established. In 36 regions, more significant variability of RMS from year to year was recorded. From our point of view, the indices are affected in parallel by teo processes: changes in mortality rates associated with chronic heart failure and changes in mortality rates due to approaches to filling out the MSS and coding PPP. To determine the contribution of cardiac failure into population mortality, it is necessary to separate concepts "chronic cardiac failure syndrome" and "cardiac failure as death mechanism" and to introduce uniform rules of indicating chronic cardiac failure syndrome in the MSS.