The case for a tortoise approach to US nuclear research and development

Abstract

The future role of nuclear power in decarbonization of the US electricity grid is uncertain. Large light water plants have proven challenging to deploy, and the existing nuclear fleet is under market pressure. A new cadre of developers, supported by the US Department of Energy, is pressing for an accelerated path to deployment of new nuclear designs to address the climate challenge and maintain the nuclear industrial base. However, an examination of market dynamics and the ongoing pace of low carbon technology transition portend significant challenges for these vendors. Our analysis indicates that the current advanced reactor research and development paradigm is unlikely to yield multiple technology options in a timeframe that matters and argues for a slower and steadier “tortoise” approach. Using an optimization model we demonstrate that a slower, structured approach across a broad portfolio of technologies will better align nuclear development with a possible mid-century market opening. By allowing additional development time, building multiple demonstration plants, and operating these new designs for extended periods, it is more likely that there will be competitive technologies that can meet the future economic and technical requirements for widespread nuclear deployment should the technology be required in decarbonization efforts.