The Case for a Bayesian Approach to Benefit-Risk Assessment:: Overview and Future Directions.

Abstract

The benefit-risk assessment of a new medicinal product or intervention is one of the most complex tasks that sponsors, regulators, payers, physicians, and patients face. Therefore, communicating the trade-off of benefits and risks in a clear and transparent manner, using all available evidence, is critical to ensure that the best decisions are made. Several quantitative methods have been proposed in recent years that try to provide insight into this challenging problem. Bayesian inference, with its coherent approach for integrating different sources of information and uncertainty, along with its links to optimal decision theory, provides a natural framework to perform quantitative assessments of the benefit-risk trade-off. This paper describes the current state of the art in Bayesian methodologies for quantitative benefit-risk assessment, and how these may be leveraged throughout the life cycle of a medicinal product to support and augment clinical judgment and qualitative benefit-risk assessments. Gaps and potential new directions that extend the current approaches are also identified.