The Calculus of Consensus: An Alternative Path to Arab Democracy

Abstract

Theorizing about democratization has been a difficult process despite the plethora of studies that have appear d in the last two de ades. In th Mid dle East's conflictual context, the study of democratization has become an even greater challenge that has preoccupied scholars representing diverse theoretical approaches, ranging from macro analyses of preconditions of democracy to mi cro-level studies of political change. What is proposed here is a novel approach focusing on the dynamics of the political process in Arab polities that involves inter-group bargaining. This new theoretical perspective has hereto received scant attention in the literature. This conceptualization of political change is based on an eclectic model that best captures the political change taking place in some socially segmented Arab societies ruled by authoritarian regimes. The general significance of this study resides in its focus on democratization, one of the most dynamic and controversial subfields in the political science dis cipline. In a sense, the study of democratization is the study of conflict and peace within the political system involving such central issues as type of regime, means of regime transition, and decisions and choices about the quality of life. These issues are particularly relevant to the Middle East countries that have ex perienced extended periods of autocratic rule, civil war, and inter-state conflict. Indeed, the question as to whether democratization is feasible in Middle East settings transcends the region in terms of its political, military and economic implications. The current literature on Middle East democratization is trapped in the gray zone, mirroring the situation in most political systems in the region. Since the onset of the Third Wave of democratization, some Latin American and East European countries have passed the threshold of transition. In contrast, there have been fluctuations in political change in most Arab countries, where liberalizing trends have become intermittently deflated by oligarchic elite cartels.