The Brandeis Dice Problem and Statistical Mechanics

Abstract

Jaynes invented the Brandeis Dice Problem as a simple illustration of the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) procedure that he had demonstrated to work so well in Statistical Mechanics. I construct here two alternative solutions to his toy problem. One, like Jaynes׳ solution, uses MaxEnt and yields an analog of the canonical ensemble, but at a different level of description. The other uses Bayesian updating and yields an analog of the micro-canonical ensemble. Both, unlike Jaynes׳ solution, yield error bars, whose operational merits I discuss. These two alternative solutions are not equivalent for the original Brandeis Dice Problem, but become so in what must, therefore, count as the analog of the thermodynamic limit, M-sided dice with M→∞. Whereas the mathematical analogies between the dice problem and Stat Mech are quite close, there are physical properties that the former lacks but that are crucial to the workings of the latter. Stat Mech is more than just MaxEnt.