The biogeography of invasive plants - projecting range shifts with climate change.

Abstract

Abstract Correlative models between species occurrences and climate (here referred to as 'habitat suitability models') have become increasingly popular for forecasting risk from invasive plants under current and future climate scenarios. These models have the potential to inform management and monitoring efforts by prioritizing landscapes considered at highest risk under a changing climate. However, a wide range of choices regarding climatic predictor variables, model ling approaches and even distributional data sets influences the resulting projections. The effects of these choices are seldom defined explicitly, which reduces their utility for scientists and managers alike. This chapter reviews common practices of habitat suitability modelling as they apply to invasive plants. The chapter also reviews major findings of recent projections of range shifts in invasive plants. In both cases, the aim is to explore how different choices of predictors, models and input data can influence conclusions in a habitat suitability modelling framework and develop recommendations for best practices.