The Biodiversity Forecasting Toolkit: Answering the ‘how much’, ‘what’, and ‘where’ of planning for biodiversity persistence

Abstract

This research reports on a new approach to conservation assessment that seeks to extend the target-based model traditionally underpinning systematic conservation planning. The Biodiversity Forecasting Tool (BFT) helps answer three important questions relating to regional biodiversity persistence: ‘how much’ biodiversity can persist for a given land-management scenario; ‘what’ habitats to focus conservation effort on; and ‘where’ in the landscape to undertake conservation action. The tool integrates fine-scaled variability in vegetation composition and structure with spatial context, which is critical for ensuring the viability of populations. Thus, a raster data framework is employed which deems each location or gridcell in a landscape as contributing to biodiversity benefits to various degrees. At its simplest, just two spatial inputs, vegetation community types and vegetation condition, are needed. Drawing on, as a case-study, a broad-scale biodiversity assessment for NSW, Australia, this paper reports on the successful application of the BFT tool for a variety of functions ranging from interactive scenario evaluation through to conservation benefits mapping.