Abstract

Only a minority of participants in behavioral weight management lose weight significantly. The ability to predict who is likely to benefit from weight management can improve the efficiency of obesity treatment. Identifying predictors of weight loss can also reveal potential ways to improve existing treatments. We propose a neuro-psychological model that is focused on recency: the reliance on recent information at the expense of time-distant information. Forty-four weight-management patients completed a decision-making task and their recency level was estimated by a mathematical model. Impulsivity and risk-taking were also measured for comparison. Weight loss was measured in the end of the 16-week intervention. Consistent with our hypothesis, successful dieters (n = 12) had lower recency scores than unsuccessful ones (n = 32; p = 0.006). Successful and unsuccessful dieters were similar in their demographics, intelligence, risk taking, impulsivity, and delay of gratification. We conclude that dieters who process time-distant information in their decision making are more likely to lose weight than those who are high in recency. We argue that having low recency facilitates future-oriented thinking, and thereby contributes to behavior change treatment adherence. Our findings underline the importance of choosing the right treatment for every individual, and outline a way to improve weight-management processes for more patients.

Highlights

  • Obesity and its adverse effects on health are becoming increasingly prevalent in the United States as well as worldwide (World Health Organization, 2015)

  • While health professionals agree that even a modest loss of 5–10% of one’s weight is beneficial (e.g., Diabetes Prevention Program Research Group, 2004; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012; Look AHEAD Research Group, 2014), most accounts of weight-loss programs’ effectiveness show that the majority of participants do not even achieve this goal (e.g., Heshka et al, 2003; Appel et al, 2011)

  • Consistent with our hypothesis, weight loss in a weight management intervention is predicted by recency, or the rate of updating recent information in the process of decision making

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Obesity and its adverse effects on health are becoming increasingly prevalent in the United States as well as worldwide (World Health Organization, 2015). Common measures of impulsivity, delay discounting, cognitive function, or decision making impairments can differentiate between obese and non-obese subjects (Nederkoorn et al, 2006; Davis et al, 2007; Weller et al, 2008; Smith et al, 2011; Koritzky et al, 2012), but because obese individuals tend to obtain similar scores in them, these measures are often not sensitive to individual differences within the obese population (Bryan and Tiggemann, 2001; Koritzky et al, 2014) It follows that a novel measure is required in order to predict success in weight-management interventions that target this population.

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