Abstract
Previous experience seems to be an important predictor for endurance and ultra-endurance performance. The present study investigated whether the number of previously completed races and/or the personal best times in shorter races is more predictive for performance in longer non-stop ultra-triathlons such as a Deca Iron ultra-triathlon. All female and male ultra-triathletes who had finished between 1985 and 2014 at least one Double Iron ultra-triathlon (i.e. 7.6 km swimming, 360 km cycling and 84.4 km running), one Triple Iron ultra-triathlon (i.e. 11.4 km swimming, 540 km cycling and 126.6 km running), one Quintuple Iron ultra-triathlon (i.e. 19 km swimming, 900 km cycling and 221 km running) and one Deca Iron ultra-triathlon (i.e. 38 km swimming, 1,800 km cycling and 422 km running) were identified and their best race times for each distance were recorded. Multiple regression analysis (stepwise, forward selection, p of F for inclusion <0.05, p of F for exclusion >0.1, listwise deletion) was used to determine all variables correlating to overall race time and performance in split disciplines for both Quintuple and Deca Iron ultra-triathlon. The number of finished shorter races (i.e. Double and Triple Iron ultra-triathlon) was not associated with the number of finished longer races (i.e. Quintuple and Deca Iron ultra-triathlon) whereas both split and overall race times correlated to split and overall race times of the longer races with the exception of the swimming split times in Double Iron ultra-triathlon showing no correlation with swimming split times in both Quintuple and Deca Iron ultra-triathlon. In summary, previous experience seemed of importance in performance for longer ultra-triathlon races (i.e. Quintuple and Deca Iron ultra-triathlon) where the personal best times of shorter races (i.e. Double and Triple Iron ultra-triathlon) were important, but not the number of previously finished races. For athletes and coaches, fast race times in shorter ultra-triathlon races (i.e. Double and Triple Iron ultra-triathlon) are more important than a large of number finished races in order to achieve a fast race time in a longer ultra-triathlon (i.e. Quintuple and Deca Iron ultra-triathlon).
Highlights
Competing in ultra-endurance races such as ultra-running (Cejka et al 2014; Hoffman and Wegelin 2009) or ultra-triathlon (Lenherr et al 2012) is increasing in popularity
Regarding the performance for each split discipline and for overall race time, the previous best performance in Double and Triple Iron ultra-triathlon was considered for the analysis of the best Quintuple Iron ultra-triathlon performance and the best performances in previously finished Double, Triple, and Quintuple Iron ultra-triathlons was considered for the analysis of best Deca Iron ultra-triathlon performance
The mean numbers of successful finishes were 7.2 ± 10.5 Double and 6.1 ± 7.1 Triple Iron ultra-triathlons. Among those athletes who finished more than one Triple and one Double Iron ultra-triathlon, the number of finished Double (r = −0.14, p = 0.24) and Triple (r = −0.21, p = 0.15) Iron ultra-triathlons showed no relationship to the number of finished Quintuple Iron ultra-triathlons
Summary
Competing in ultra-endurance races such as ultra-running (Cejka et al 2014; Hoffman and Wegelin 2009) or ultra-triathlon (Lenherr et al 2012) is increasing in popularity. In the last 30 years between 1985 and 2014, the distances increased from Double Iron ultra-triathlon (i.e. 7.6 km swimming, Previous experience seems to be very important in ultra-endurance performance such as long-distance triathlon (Gilinsky et al 2014; Gulbin and Gaffney 1999; Herbst et al 2011; Knechtle et al 2014a, b). The number (Herbst et al 2011) and the personal best times achieved in previous races (Gilinsky et al 2014; Gulbin and Gaffney 1999; Knechtle et al 2010a, 2011a, b, c, 2012). Are the previous personal best times and/or the numbers of completed races accurate predictors of ultra-triathlon performance?
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