The Applicability of the Concept of Resilience to Social Systems: Some Sources of Optimism and Nagging Doubts

The objective of this paper is to identify the best indicator in forecasting the recovery period from the current global crisis for Malaysia. Initially, to determine the best indicator for the recovery period, we construct a simple forecasting model that incorporates three indicators: lagging, leading and coincidence indices, with two proxies of economic performance, macroeconomic and financial variables. We estimate a two-variable vector error correction model (VECM) using monthly and quarterly data covering the period 1980 to 2000. We alternate between the three indicators and we evaluate each model using out-of-sample forecast. Using the results of the initial process of analysis, we predict the recovery period of Malaysian economy from the current global economic crisis. It is found that lagging index is the best indicator of financial performance of the economy. From the half-life calculation base on error correction term, the study found that Malaysia was able to recover from the previous 1997 crisis within a two to four year period after the crisis. Given that the current crisis environment is similar to the previous 1997 crisis, a similar time period could apply to the current global crisis recovery.

In 2022, UN Secretary-General António Guterres established the UN Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance (GCRG) to respond to the unprecedented and interconnected food, energy and finance crises in the world. Africa and Navigating the Current Global Crisis is the first comprehensive book on how Africa and its Diaspora have been affected by, and in turn have responded to, this current global crisis. Featuring chapters written by contributors from around the globe and various disciplines, authors share their current research on the pertinent issues surrounding the current global crisis as they relate to African people in the African continent and Diaspora. The volume features topics such as Women and Gender, Health, Politics, Education, Economics, Business and Trade, Social, Technology, Religion, the Environment in relation to Global Warming and Climate Change, as well as Peace and Security. Dealing with real world issues that impact people at all levels, this powerful interdisciplinary collection makes important connections between ideas and concepts across different disciplines, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of how Africa and its Diaspora have been navigating the current global crisis.

1. Introduction In this study, firstly it is assessed occurrence of the crisis that began in last quarter of 2008 in USA housing market. Later it was focused on measures taken by Southern Europe Welfare States which are Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece over the period after crisis. The crisis raised the uncertainty in world economy and caused unsteadiness at first financial markets later real markets. The crisis that started in the finance markets has taken the reel markets under effect with time. The recession started in developed countries has affected the developing countries which are already in critical levels. While the global developments were regressing, the countries were in consensus to take precautions together to struggle with the crisis in the world economy. Turkey was affected from the crisis as many other developing and developed countries had been affected. We will firstly deal with the appearance and enlargement process of the crisis in the world, before we evaluate the effects of the crisis on Turkey. In this process Turkey took the packages as many other countries applied attention. Global recession in Turkey created negative impacts on mainly production concerning consumption, employment and investment. After the crisis, because of the recession and of TL's excessive valuableness in the amount of the speculative foreign capital income decreased, therefore total demand reduced and a big fall in importation was seen. 2. The global crisis and its effects on investment and unemployment in USA and Southern Europe welfare states According to Fink (1986), Kash and Darling (1998), a crisis is referred to as an unplanned event emerging from the internal or external environment of an organization or country which can disrupt operations, threaten people physically and mentally, endanger the viability of entities no longer able to cope with the situation using normal managerial procedures. The current global crisis originated in the USA financial market has been expanded in the EU from the beginning (Thalassinos, 2008; Thalassinos and Politis, 2011). Since this is the centre of a network that interlinks the national financial systems of almost all countries in the world, the crisis was spread very quickly. According to Mishkin (2008), the current global financial crisis has many aspects in common with past global financial crises that have occurred throughout history. The current financial crisis has had three fundamental factors as in many previous crises. The first one is mismanagement of financial innovation, second one is an asset price bubble that burst, and third one is deterioration of financial institution balance sheets. World-shaking events market capitalism quietly and shifted much of the discredited central planning that was so dominant in the Third World. China which is a large segment of the erstwhile Third World replicated the wonderful economic export-oriented model and this so-called model is Asian Tigers. Besides this, thanks to China fairly well educated, low-cost workforces were joined with developed-world technology. It was protected by an increasing rule of law, so as to release explosive economic growth. So, real GDP growth of the developing world has been more than double since 2000. Along with surge in competitive and low-priced exports from developing countries, particularly those to Europe and the U.S. flattened labor compensation in developed countries, and attenuated the rate of inflation expectations throughout the world by including those inflation expectations embedded in global long-term interest rates. Furthermore, there has been a significant decrease in global real interest rates which affect the all financial markets since beginning of the 1990. So this indicated that global saving intentions constantly had exceeded intentions to invest. Rate of consumption clearly could not keep up with the surge of income in the developing world and as a result, savings rate of the developed world increased from 24% of nominal GDP in 1999 to 33% in 2006 and the savings rate of the developed world went faster than its investment rate (Greenspan, 2007). …

This chapter aims to identify the impact of the on-going global recession on migrant workers in East Asia whose movement and mobility are deeply embedded in East Asia’s regional development today. The current global crisis of neoliberalism has overshadowed the East Asian region as stagnating economic growth in its major export destinations slowed its growth. The severe downturn between 2008 and 2009 precipitated a tightening of international migration controls as well as interruptions to rural-urban movements in various countries. It was widely anticipated that the further development of the recession would generate a full-blown crisis of migration in East Asia. On initial examination, this would seem to fit the common assumption by policy-makers that labour migration is a temporary feature which in the event of an economic crisis can be simply ‘turned off’, mitigating the effect on the national population and institutions. However, drawing on secondary sources as well as the author’s extensive primary research on labour issues in East Asia, spanning two economic crises, this chapter shows that migration is an essential aspect of the regional integration of East Asia and its emergence as a centre of global capitalism. While the global economic crisis has indeed been met with nationalistic government rhetoric and migration restrictions, there is on-going demand for migrant labour among East Asian employers, indeed migrant labour is key to the intensification of labour and wage cuts deemed necessary to survive the recession. As a result, migration indicators have not been as deeply affected as initial warnings anticipated. Meanwhile, the tighter integration of migrant labour since the Asian economic crisis created a new context through which migrants’ political subjectivity has been formed. In China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand, both stricter migration controls (whether genuine and effective or not) and employers’ attempts to squeeze migrant workers have faced a wave of protests from politically maturing migrants who have been increasingly developing their bargaining power within the expanding circuit of capital in integrating East Asia. Rather than leading to a crisis of migration, then, the current global economic crisis has intensified the struggles of labour which are a key feature of contemporary East Asian development. This chapter first discusses how the global economic crisis has affected East Asia, and triggered warnings of an impending crisis of migration. The second section puts this situation in historical context, highlighting the central role of migration in East Asian development over the last century, across a range of sectors and national economies. The third section demonstrates that the impact of the global economic crisis on migration, showing that the less significant or prolonged than one might expect, or government rhetoric suggests. The final section outlines the role of the global economic crisis in the development of migrant workers’ activism.

The problems and prospects of a new international order formation in terms of the transformation of the international system are viewed. It is proved that sustainable development of the contemporary international system depends on the consolidation of the international community and the constructive cooperation between the international relations participants. Thus it is necessary to begin the process of developing a new model of a world governing that would take into consideration the conditions of the global world of the XXI century. The necessity of comprehensive study of the components of the global crisis of world governance and search for mechanisms to overcome it by consolidating participants of the international system are proved. A complex crisis in various fields and at various levels, from local to global proves incapacity, due to lack of appropriate mechanisms, of the international community to overcome the global system crisis that includes world governing crisis. Thus, the current crisis on the global level always calls for search the means and factors that would provide stabilization of the social, economic and political relations, consolidation of social powers and all members of the international system. The current global system crisis is not accidental one and it is a natural phenomenon associated with long-term trends of world political and economic development. Thus the present global system crisis has its own peculiarities and distinctive features associated with the processes of globalization, regional political and economic integration, global migration and more. Crisis development was accelerated because of the collapse of the bipolar international system and intensification of globalization. Obviously, handling crisis development is possible to be achieved, provided the acquisition of the new international system a balance that would correspond properly to the character of global transformations. From this perspective, changes in social development have made the problem of international political consolidation a highly topical one as it is aimed at sustainable development of mankind.

Crises in one way or another accompany the development of mankind throughout its history. But the current global crisis is fundamentally different from the previous ones. Its difference is that it is integral, multidimensional, deep and has at its core the oblivion of the spiritual essence of a person. All forms of modern human activity bear the stamp of this oblivion – the spiritual content of any human activity today is minimal and tends to disappear completely. The loss of spirituality, and recently the conscious refusal of a person from his spiritual essence, lies at the basis of the modern global crisis. In turn, the rejection of the spiritual essence by man was the result of the loss of the unity of man and God, which is a moral crime on the part of man. Man has despised the commandments given to him by God, forgetting that the commandments are not only moral maxims, but also the laws of existence, and their fulfillment connects a person with God on an ontological level. Therefore, the current crisis is truly global and eschatological. Overcoming this crisis, getting out of it is possible only on the ways of recreating a person's spiritual essence, on which the future of society and the positive historical perspective of humanity depend.

This chapter assesses the extent to which previous economic and financial crises had a negative impact on health outcomes and health financing. In addition, we review evidence related to the effectiveness of different policy measures undertaken in past crises to protect access to health services, especially for the poor and vulnerable. The current global crisis is unique both in terms of its scale and origins. Unlike most previous instances, the current crisis has its origins in developed countries, initially the United States, before it spread to middle- and lower-income countries. The current crisis is now affecting almost all countries at all levels of income. This chapter addresses several key questions aimed at helping inform possible policy responses to the current crisis from the perspective of the health sector: What is the nature of the current crisis and in what ways does it differ from previous experiences? What are some of the key. lessons from previous crises? How have governments responded previously to protect health from such macroeconomic shocks? How can we improve the likelihood of positive action today? The chapter reviews the literature on the impact of financial crises on health outcomes and health expenditures and on the effectiveness of past policy efforts to protect human development during periods of economic downturn. It also presents analysis of household surveys and health expenditure data to track health seeking behavior and out-of-pocket expenditures by households during times of financial crisis. Evidence from previous crises indicates that health-related impacts during economic downturns can occur through various channels. The impact in households experiencing reductions in employment and income could be manifest in terms of poorer nutritional outcomes and lower levels of utilization of health care when needed. Households may become impoverished, reduce needed health services, and experience reductions in consumption as a result of health shocks occurring during a time when their economic vulnerability has increased. Women, children, the poor, and informal sector workers are likely to be most at risk of experiencing negative health-related consequences in a crisis. Real government spending per capita on health care could decline due to reduced revenues, currency devaluations, and potential reductions in external aid flows. Low-income countries with weak fiscal positions are likely to be the most vulnerable. Past crises can inform policy-making aimed at protecting health outcomes and reducing financial risk from health shocks. Evidence from previous crises indicates that broad-brush strategies that maintained overall levels of government health spending tended not to be successful, failing to protect access to quality health services especially for the poor. It is particularly vital to ensure access to essential health commodities, which in many low-income countries are imported, in the face of weakening exchange rates. Focused efforts to sustain the supply of lower-level basic services, combined with targeted demand-side approaches like conditional cash transfers may be more effective than broader sectoral approaches. Low-income countries may need specific short-term measures to ensure that health outcomes do not suffer.

This article compares two dominating conceptual frameworks of the current global environmental crisis, the Anthropocene and climate change, with respect to how they can be deployed to think about the dynamics of political action. Whereas the Anthropocene has attracted the attention of audiences beyond specialists and has radically expanded the temporal horizon for politics, its temporal characteristics risk rendering it unhelpful for thinking critically about how the current environmental crisis can be addressed. Most importantly, by establishing a reference point in a distant future from which the present is evaluated, the Anthropocene framework gives the impression that the future is already determined and that the course of future environmental degradation is set. The Anthropocene thus fails to specify what is at stake for politics in the current crisis. As a contrast, the climate-change framework is structured as a range of scenarios. It establishes a temporal structure that opens the present to different potential futures and manifests the fact that the level of emissions in the coming decades is decisive for future climate change but not yet determined. Further, the presence of tipping points in the climate system can be understood in temporal terms as a risk in some scenarios of falling into a temporality of unfolding, a mode in which game-changing events that lead to even more emissions proceed beyond human influence. The risk of entering such a temporality that closes down the possibility to meaningfully deliberate on fundamental aspects of the future increases with the rate of emissions. The climate-change framework in this way helps us understand the environmental crisis in a new way, namely by conceptualizing the open future as a finite resource that has to be distributed globally and across generations. In sum, as a framework for engaging with environmental derangement, the climate-change framework offers a more specific and politically useful temporality than the Anthropocene.

The current global financial crisis is the most serious both in terms of magnitude and in terms of scope since the Great Depression. No country has been immune to the economic slowdown. In advanced economies, the financial crisis and the global recession that followed the burst of the global financial bubble have brought severe consequences in terms of employment and output. In developing countries, output contraction, growth slowdown, and rising unemployment have come hand in hand with higher borrowing costs, sluggish export growth, and a significant reduction in international capital flows. As a result, poverty has increased. The global financial crisis has left lasting effects on the structure of financial markets, international capital flows, and the cost of capital for developing countries. The efforts of governments and international financial institutions to buffer the impact of the crisis have been quick and aimed in the right direction. However, many risks remain for the road to recovery. This paper provides a brief explanation of how the current global financial crisis originated, and the underlying factors that turned a relatively small collapse in the subprime mortgage market in the United States into a global crisis. It also explores similarities and differences between the current crisis and past experiences. This comparison can provide a better understanding of the main determinants and transmission mechanisms involved, which can help in the design of a better response to the current situation on the one hand, and in the prevention of future crises or minimizations of their impact on the other. Finally, the paper discusses lessons that can be learned for developing countries, focusing on the policies that governments can implement to mitigate the effects of crises and factors that are important for reducing the risks of experiencing a crisis.

Chapter 2 - Review of Carnivore Evolution

The pullbacks of capital inflows to developing Asia following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 have brought renewed attention to the role and benefits of financial globalization. A number of notable distinctions between the current global crisis and the Asian financial crisis have become evident. Solid domestic institutions, especially in the financial sector; swift policy responses; and a sound macroeconomic environment with adequate reserves have helped the region to manage well the adverse impacts of the global crisis. Empirical analysis examining the link between capital account openness and output volatility reveals that a developing country with a more open capital market tends to experience lower output volatility, contrary to what might be expected. It is also found that countries can mitigate the destabilizing effect of pursuing greater exchange rate stability by holding a sufficiently high level of foreign reserves. Furthermore, if they want to reap the benefit of financial liberalization to reduce output volatility, highly integrated economies need to be equipped with highly developed financial markets, particularly of banking and stock markets.

A major cause of the current global financial crisis has been maturity mismatch – too much short-term borrowing in order to finance longterm bank loans. There were serious fundamental problems as well: rapid credit growth and a deterioration in standards of loan assessment, resulting in banks holding many low-quality assets. But these fundamental problems do not explain the depth of the current crisis, which has been greatly amplified by investor panic and withdrawal of these short-term funds. This chapter is an overview of this argument. Banks have relied on mortgage and other loan-backed securities to finance their loanportfolios, either by selling these securities outright or using them as collateral for short-term borrowing. Other banks have acted as wholesale intermediaries, purchasing the new instruments for trading or investment and financing these holdings using short-term borrowing. Relatively few of these securities were sold to long-term investors. This short-term wholesale borrowing successfully underpinned the credit boom, until rising losses on US sub-prime lending undermined confidence in the mortgage-backed and other structured securities that were used as collateral for this borrowing. Now banks can no longer ‘rent’ the money they need to lend. Their access to wholesale funding has declined further as the value of the structured credit instruments on bank balance sheets has collapsed, further undermining investor confidence in banks. Central bank liquidity provision has not solved this problem.

This article argues that the current global economic crisis is an outcome of the excessive growth of the financial market over the real economy, and hence, of fictitious profits over real profits. In investigating the interrelation between the financial market and the real economy, it makes a comparative inquiry into two key assertions regarding economic crisis within Marxism: the tendency for the rate of profit to fall and overaccumulation of capital. Accepting the claim that economic crisis is inherent to capitalism, this article probes the role of countervailing tendencies in battling the tendency for the rate of profit to fall. While crisis is an outcome of both the extensive growth of fictitious profits and the tendency for the rate of profit to fall, the latter is identified as the fundamental reason for the current crisis. Labour market reforms that were implemented following the emergence of the economic crisis represent the resurgence of countervailing tendencies and are the most explicit evidence that the fundamental reason for the crisis resides in the real economy.

The current global economic crisis is affecting many Asian countries. In fact, the expanded activity especially in financial sectors following the previous economic crisis in the late 1990s may have...

In his recent encyclical Caritas in Veritate, Pope Benedict XVI grapples with one of the most vexing paradoxes concerning the current global economic crisis. There is no question that it is a global financial crisis. The collapse of the subprime mortgage loan market in the U.S. in 2007 prefigured similar collapses of real estate bubbles in other parts of the world. The collapse of these real estate bubbles exposed the degree of interconnectedness among financial institutions across the globe created by the worldwide market for the derivate investment products created on the backs of the underlying real estate loans—the mortgage-backed securities in all their complex manifestations, and the credit default swaps that were essentially insurance policies on the risks of default of these securities. Various configurations of international coordinating bodies have called for global responses to the crisis. At its root, however, the current crisis is in a very important sense fundamentally a uniquely local phenomenon. It is the result of individual consumer transactions that are about as inherently local as a commercial transaction can ever get—loans to specific individual consumers tied to specific unique, unmovable pieces of residential real estate. Every single loan packaged into the bundles of investment opportunities that became “toxic assets” held by large institutional investors originated with a contractual relationship between an individual borrower and a single lender. In addition to the global macroeconomic consequences of the collapse of this market, every one of these loans that goes into default has personal consequences for the individual borrower whose home is the collateral for that loan.