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The 25-year national trends in prevalence of metabolic phenotypes among iranian adults: from 2000 to 2025 using STEPS studies.

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This study analyzes 25-year trends in eight metabolic phenotypes among Iranian adults from 2000 to 2025, revealing significant increases in metabolically unhealthy overweight and obese individuals, especially among women, urban residents, and older age groups, driven by declining healthy phenotypes and highlighting the need for targeted public health strategies.

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The increasing global burden of obesity and its metabolic complications necessitates a detailed understanding of specific metabolic phenotypes. This study investigates the 25-year trends in the prevalence of eight metabolic phenotypes that are categorized by body mass index (BMI) and metabolic health status, among Iranian adults from 2000 to 2025. This retrospective analysis utilized data from four national and sub-national cross-sectional studies based on the World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors surveillance (STEPS), conducted in Iran from 2007, 2011, 2016, and 2021. Adults aged 25-65 were classified into eight phenotypes based on BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese) and metabolic health status (healthy/unhealthy), defined using the National Cholesterol Education Program's and Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) criteria. A smoothing spline model was applied to estimate trends from 2000 to 2025. A total of 55,204 adults were included in this study. From 2000 to 2025, the prevalence of metabolically unhealthy overweight (MUOW) increased from 19.16% to 26.20%, and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUOb) from 15.07% to 21.67%, while metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW) declined from 26.82% to 13.67%. For both genders, there was a constant increase in MUOW and MUOb, with the percentage of MUOb being nearly twice as high in females compared to males (In 2000: 19.37% vs. 10.30%, In 2025: 26.16% vs. 14.86% among females vs. males). The prevalence of MUOW (In 2000: 20.69% vs. 16.99%, among urban and rural areas, respectively, and In 2025: 26.72% vs. 23.14% among urban and rural areas, respectively) and MUOb (In 2000: 15.54% vs. 11.75%, among urban and rural areas, respectively, and In 2025: 23.26% vs. 18.76% among urban and rural areas, respectively) increased, with urban areas showing higher percentages than rural areas. Across age groups, MUOW and MUOb consistently rose over the years, peaking in the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups, while the 25-34 age group had the highest percentage of MHNW. Across provinces, MUOW and MUOb increased, while metabolically healthy underweight (MHUW), MHNW, metabolically healthy obese (MHOb), metabolically unhealthy underweight (MUUW), and metabolically unhealthy normal weight ( MUNW) decreased, with metabolically healthy overweight (MHOW) showing a slight rise. From 2000 to 2025, a significant increase in metabolically unhealthy phenotypes, particularly MUOW and MUOb, was observed among Iranian adults, driven by a decline in metabolically healthy phenotypes. This trend underscores the need for targeted public health interventions, especially for older adults, women, and urban populations. Regional differences reflect varying cultural and socioeconomic factors. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-025-01805-3.

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PurposeThe association between metabolic phenotypes and thyroid function has not yet been established; therefore, this study examined whether different metabolic phenotypes are associated with the development of hypothyroidism.MethodsStudy participants were selected from the Tehran Thyroid Study (TTS). A total of 3338 euthyroid adults were included and categorized into four obesity phenotype groups: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically healthy obese (MHO), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). The participants were assessed at baseline and during three follow-up studies at three-year intervals. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between metabolic phenotypes and the development of hypothyroidism.ResultsIn the total population, the chi-square test was only significant (P=0.008) in 3rd year with a higher prevalence of hypothyroidism in the MUNW phenotype, followed by MHO, MUO, and MHNW. Moreover, in the 3rd and 9th years of follow-up, hypothyroidism was more prevalent in MUO only in male subjects (P=0.002 and 0.035, respectively). In the unadjusted model, the MHO phenotype increased the odds of hypothyroidism compared with the MHNW phenotype (OR=1.51; 95% CI=1.04, 2.18; P-value=0.031). After adjusting for confounding factors, the odds of hypothyroidism were higher in the MUNW (OR=1.86; 95% CI=1.17, 2.96; P-value=0.008), MHO (OR=1.71; 95% CI=1.09, 2.67; P-value=0.018), and MUO (OR=1.64; 95% CI=1.03, 2.62; P-value=0.036) phenotypes than in the MHNW group. The MUNW phenotype increased the risk of hypothyroidism compared to MHNW, only in males. However, in females, the MHO phenotype increased the risk of hypothyroidism compared to MHNW.ConclusionBoth obesity and metabolic abnormalities are associated with hyperthyroidism. Healthy metabolic and weight maintenance were associated with a lower risk of hypothyroidism in males and females.

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