TESTING THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE MODEL: THE CASE OF MEXICO

Abstract

This exploratory study, a survey of 305 heads of household in Monterrey, Mexico, investigated public opinion during a six-month period in 1982 which saw a changeover of presidential incumbents. During the transition, respondents were polled about their willingness to express their opinion about the outgoing and incoming presidents. Overall, the results provided support for the spiral of silence approach. Path analysis revealed that exposure and attention to the mass media were associated with both knowledge holding and perceptions of majority opinion. Interpersonal discussion of politics was associated with knowledge. And knowledge also was related to one's own opinion and perceived present and future majority opinion. Present majority opinion was linked to willingness to enter a political discussion. And holding positive or negative cognitions was related to expressing favorable or unfavorable comments about each political figure. Recommendations for alternative ways of assessing fear of isolation, expanded sampling frames, tracking power shifts, and assessing perceptions of power are discussed.