Testing Kuznets’ environmental hypothesis for the Legal Amazon: a nonlinear approach

A mix of public policy and market interventions in the mid‐2000s led to historic reductions in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The collateral impact of these forest conservation policies on agricultural production is still poorly understood, though evidence is sorely needed given the economic importance of agriculture in Brazil and many other forest‐rich countries. We construct a ten‐year panel dataset for agriculture and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (2004–2014), and use two complementary difference‐in‐difference strategies to estimate the causal effect of one of Brazil's flagship anti‐deforestation strategies, the Priority List (Municípios Prioritários), on agricultural production and productivity in three sectors: beef, dairy, and crop production. We find no evidence for trade‐offs between agriculture and forest conservation. Rather, reductions in deforestation in priority municipalities were paired with increases in cattle production and productivity (cattle/hectare), consistent with a model where policy‐induced decreases in the value of clearing new land cause credit‐constrained farmers to shift investments from deforestation to capital investments in farming. The policy had no consistent effect on dairy or crop production. Our results suggest that in regions with large yield gaps and where technologies for increasing yields are readily available, efforts to constrain agricultural expansion through improved forest conservation policies may induce intensification.

A mix of public policy and market interventions in the mid‐2000s led to historic reductions in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The collateral impact of these forest conservation policies on agricultural production is still poorly understood, though evidence is sorely needed given the economic importance of agriculture in Brazil and many other forest‐rich countries. We construct a ten‐year panel dataset for agriculture and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (2004–2014), and use two complementary difference‐in‐difference strategies to estimate the causal effect of one of Brazil's flagship anti‐deforestation strategies, the Priority List (Municipios Prioritarios), on agricultural production and productivity in three sectors: beef, dairy, and crop production. We find no evidence for trade‐offs between agriculture and forest conservation. Rather, reductions in deforestation in priority municipalities were paired with increases in cattle production and productivity (cattle/hectare), consistent with a model where policy‐induced decreases in the value of clearing new land cause credit‐constrained farmers to shift investments from deforestation to capital investments in farming. The policy had no consistent effect on dairy or crop production. Our results suggest that in regions with large yield gaps and where technologies for increasing yields are readily available, efforts to constrain agricultural expansion through improved forest conservation policies may induce intensification.

Controlling deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Regional economic impacts and land-use change

The Brazilian Legal Amazon is an extensive territory in which different factors influence the dynamics of forest fires. Currently, the Brazilian government has two tools in the public domain and free of charge, PRODES and BDQueimadas, to monitor and make decisions to combat deforestation and forest fires. This work aimed to evaluate and correlate the forest fire alerts and deforestation in the Amazon Forest in the state of Pará. The analyses were based on carrying out a diagnosis of forest fires and deforestation; the behavior of forest fires and deforestation over the last twenty years; the statistical relationship between deforestation and forest fires and their spatialization. This work identified that Pará is the state in the Legal Amazon with the highest occurrence of forest fires and deforestation. Deforestation in the four-year period Jan/2003-Dec/2006 showed a higher rate compared to the four-year periods Jan/2011-Dec/2018. A high correlation was found between forest fire alerts and increases in deforestation. There is a spatial relationship between cities with greater increases in deforestation and high numbers of fire alerts. In relation to the occurrence of forest fires and deforestation, the south of the state was the most critical region and the north had lower rates.

The asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth in selected African countries: Evidence from a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model

The relationship between technical efficiency in agriculture and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Objective: The objective of this research is to carry out a comprehensive literature review, focusing on the period from 1988 to 2022, to systematically analyze the main anthropogenic activities responsible for deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Theoretical reference: The theoretical framework of this research is based on the existing literature on deforestation in the Amazon, covering concepts related to anthropogenic activities, environmental impacts and conservation policies. Methodology: The method employed consists of a thorough analysis of the main scientific publication platforms and databases to compile relevant information on deforestation in the Legal Amazon. In addition, the research uses a systemic analysis to assess the future of deforestation. Results and Conclusion: The results highlight the critical areas of deforestation in the region, identifying extensive farming and illegal mining as the predominant factors. The temporal analysis projects an increase in deforestation if these activities persist. The alternatives proposed include models of sustainable agriculture, with an emphasis on preserving agrobiodiversity. The research concludes by highlighting the urgent need for more effective public policies, especially in the illegal mining sector. Research Implications: The implications of this research address the urgency of measures to tackle deforestation in the Legal Amazon, including the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices. It also highlights the need for more effective public policies, especially in relation to illegal mining, which is recognized as a high-impact activity. Originality/Value: The originality of this research lies in its comprehensive approach, integrating a literature review with a temporal analysis, and proposing sustainable solutions. It contributes to understanding the challenges faced in the Legal Amazon, presenting viable directions for conservation and sustainable management, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive and effective public policies.

Conflicts between forest conservation and socio-economic development in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) have persisted for years but the effects of Indigenous territory (ITs) and protected area (PAs) status on deforestation there remain unclear. To address this issue, we analysed time-series satellite images and qualified annual forest area in the BLA under different governance and management regimes. Between 2000 and 2021, areas classified as ITs or PAs increased to cover 52% of forested areas in the BLA while accounting for only 5% of net forest loss and 12% of gross forest loss. In the years (2003–2021) after establishment, gross forest loss fell 48% in PAs subject to ‘strict protection’ and 11% in PAs subject to ‘sustainable use’. However, from 2018 to 2021 the percentage rate of annual gross forest loss in ITs/PAs was twice that of non-designated areas. Our findings reveal the vital role of, and substantial progress achieved by, ITs and PAs in Amazonian forest conservation as well as the dangers of recent weakening of Brazil’s forest policies. The Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) has Earth’s largest tropical rainforest and a history of tension around its fate. Between 2001 and 2018, this study finds that Indigenous territories and protected areas in the BLA have expanded and reduced deforestation markedly, with some gains eroded in recent areas.

Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km2 (+20%) in the Amazon and 240 000 km2 (+273%) in the Cerrado compared to a scenario of moderate climate change. Putting an end to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest by 2020 (and of the Cerrado by 2025) would require either a reduction of 26%–40% in livestock production until 2050 or a doubling of average livestock density from 0.74 to 1.46 head per hectare. These results suggest that (i) climate change can affect land use in ways not previously explored, such as the reduction of yields entailing further deforestation, and (ii) there is a need for an integrated/multidisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon.

Property rights and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an urgent public health concern in Brazil. We evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of VL to better understand the effects of economic activities related to agriculture, livestock, and deforestation on its incidence in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). The data on newly confirmed cases of VL in Brazilian municipalities from 2007 to 2020 were extracted from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) and analyzed. The data on agricultural production (planted area in hectares) and livestock (total number of cattle) were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), whereas deforestation data (in hectares) were obtained from the Amazon Deforestation Estimation Project (PRODES). SatScan and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) were used to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of VL and its relationships with economic and environmental variables. The cumulative incidence rate was found to be 4.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Based on the LISA results, areas with a high incidence of VL and deforestation were identified in the states of Roraima, Pará, and Maranhão. Strengthening deforestation monitoring programs and environmental enforcement actions can help implement public policies to control illegal deforestation and mitigate the socio-environmental vulnerability in the BLA. Therefore, areas identified in this study should be prioritized for controlling VL.

An observational analysis of precipitation and deforestation age in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Market-oriented cattle traceability in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Land occupations and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Após mais de uma década de redução do desmatamento na Amazônia – relacionada a um conjunto de esforços públicos e da sociedade, destacando-se o Plano de Ação para Prevenção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia Legal (PPCDAm) – esta trajetória passa a apresentar sinais de crescimento. Assim, é importante avaliar os resultados das políticas públicas responsáveis pela redução do desmatamento, permitindo focalizar e adaptar aquelas que lograram êxito. Umas das políticas relevantes no âmbito do PPCDAm, que trouxe implicações para a gestão ambiental compartilhada, é a priorização de municípios para focalização de ações relativas à prevenção, monitoramento e controle de desmatamento no Bioma Amazônia, instituída pelo Decreto Nº 6.321/2007. O presente trabalho, de caráter interdisciplinar, busca avaliar os resultados desta política. Foi realizada pesquisa de caráter qualitativo e quantitativo abrangendo (i) pesquisa bibliográfica em documentos oficiais e literatura disponível e (ii) análise do desmatamento municipal. Verificou-se que a política teve resultados mais significativos na redução do desmatamento nos seus primeiros anos, tendo influenciado a criação de políticas de regularização ambiental e de incentivo à governança ambiental local. Entretanto, com o passar dos anos, a política deixa de apresentar eficácia. Este desempenho parece relacionar-se com a redução das ações executadas e com a demora na atualização da lista de municípios priorizados. O atual contexto demanda um esforço de reformulação da política. A atualização da lista em 2017 traz perspectivas positivas, podendo denotar um esforço de se retomar a execução da política, com a revisão dos seus incentivos e aumento de sua efetividade.