Abstract
An underwater slope in San Francisco Bay Mud that failed during excavation will be analyzed, first deterministically using data from field vane shear and laboratory triaxial tests, then probabilistically, accounting for parametric uncertainty and correlation of the undrained shear strength and soil unit weight. In the deterministic analysis, the factors of safety will be compared based on field vane shear test data, and triaxial tests on 35 mm test specimens and 70 mm Shelby tube specimens. The principal factors influencing these measures of undrained strength are shown to be sample disturbance and testing rate. Computed factors of safety are also affected by extrapolation of measured strengths to depths greater than the actual depths of sampling and vane shear testing. The deterministic analysis is extended into reliability analysis to account for parametric uncertainty and correlation among input parameters. The results from the first-order reliability method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulation method are compared and discussed. The effects of different input probability distributions on the probability of slope failure are investigated.
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