Abstract
Highly lethal terrorist attacks, which we define as those killing 21 or more people, account for 50% of the total number of people killed in all terrorist attacks combined, yet comprise only 3.5% of terrorist attacks. Given the disproportionate influence of these incidents, uncovering systematic patterns in attacks that precede and anticipate these highly lethal attacks may be of value for understanding attacks that exact a heavy toll on life. Here we examined whether the activity of terrorist groups escalates–both in the number of people killed per attack and in the frequency of attacks–leading up to highly lethal attacks. Analyses of terrorist attacks drawn from a state-of-the-art international terrorism database (The Global Terrorism Database) showed evidence for both types of escalation leading up to highly lethal attacks, though complexities to the patterns emerged as well. These patterns of escalation do not emerge among terrorist groups that never commit a highly lethal attack.
Highlights
Using a large state-of-the-art international terrorism database, this research examined whether terrorist incidents that kill a large number of people are preceded by escalation in either the number of people killed per attack or the frequency of attacks
Examining the distribution of fatalities per attack in a comprehensive international terrorism database–the Global Terrorism Database [2]–the number of fatalities in the most deadly 1% of attacks (69,156 fatalities) accounts for 32% of the total number of fatalities recorded in the database (219,078)
A small number of deadly attacks accounts for a disproportionate number of the total fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks
Summary
Using a large state-of-the-art international terrorism database, this research examined whether terrorist incidents that kill a large number of people are preceded by escalation in either the number of people killed per attack or the frequency of attacks. A small number of more deadly attacks kill many more times the mean number of fatalities per attack (a distribution that can be described with a power law [1]). Examining the distribution of fatalities per attack in a comprehensive international terrorism database–the Global Terrorism Database [2]–the number of fatalities in the most deadly 1% of attacks (69,156 fatalities) accounts for 32% of the total number of fatalities recorded in the database (219,078). A small number of deadly attacks accounts for a disproportionate number of the total fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks
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