Terrorism and agriculture in the context of food security: an empirical analysis of the impact of terrorist activities on agricultural production in the Sahel Region

Shenggen FanInternational Food Policy Research Institute and Institute of AgriculturalEconomics of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesLinxiu ZhangCenter for Chinese Agricultural Policy of the Chinese Academy of SciencesXiaobo ZhangInternational Food Policy Research InstituteI. IntroductionChina is one of the few countries in the developing world that has madeprogress in reducing its total number of poor over the past 25 years.

Nonfarm Activities and Household Production Choices in Smallholder Agriculture in Vietnam

A salient theme in D. Gale Johnson’s work is the importance of agricultural development for general prosperity and for economic diversification (e.g., Johnson 2000). Johnson has also noted that most of the world’s poor are engaged in farming, so that a key focus of development policy is to raise the incomes of farmers. From a global perspective, increasing the productivity of agriculture, given the fixity of land, is necessary for both poverty reduction and the development of the nonagricultural sector. At the level of the world, agricultural productivity gains, poverty reduction, and the growth of the nonfarm sector are complements. However, the question remains whether these observations imply that every poor country should focus its public resources on agricultural development in order to raise the incomes of people now engaged in farming and whether such a policy is necessary for obtaining economic diversity. In this article, we use the experience of India over the past 30 years to address the issue of whether agricultural technical change actually leads to economic diversification and income growth within the rural sector in the context of an open-economy country in which there are cross-area trade and capital flows. We focus in particular on the rural sector because this is the sector in which linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are thought to be the strongest. We exploit the fact that India has maintained a policy of openness with respect to agricultural technology over this period, permitting and actively supporting agricultural development, and has moved to a reformed regime in which goods are traded and capital is more mobile in the 1990s. Evidence on the relationship between agricultural growth and nonfarm

Promoting farmers’ participation in rural industrial integration and driving farmers’ agricultural production with cooperatives and agribusinesses are conducive to realizing cost saving, efficiency, and green production and guaranteeing food security and sustainable agricultural development. Based on the microsurvey data of 1039 grain farmers in Henan Province, China in 2022, this paper examined the impact of contractual choices of farmers’ participation in rural industrial integration on agricultural green productivity while analyzing the mechanism of action by using OLS regression, a causal mediation analysis of instrumental variables, propensity score matching, and two-stage least squares (2SLS). The study found that: (1) farmers’ participation in a contract, driven by cooperatives or agribusinesses to carry out agricultural production, is conducive to improving their agricultural green productivity, but the effect of each main body to drive farmers varies; (2) farmers’ participation in a contract, through cooperatives or agribusinesses to obtain all kinds of agricultural production services—such as agricultural machinery services, agricultural supply services, and technical guidance services—improves the use of agricultural machinery, the standardization of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and other agricultural materials’ use, increases technical guidance, and improves agricultural green productivity. The findings of this paper suggest policy and practical implications for safeguarding food security and promoting sustainable agriculture, as well as enriching research on agricultural productivity.

Research questions: Are there any benefits from increasing nonfarm employment on expenditures of agricultural production? Is there any impact of nonfarm employment on family labour use in agricultural production? and Is there any gain in the technical efficiency of production through nonfarm employment participation? Evidence from the rural livelihood literature shows that rural farm households engage in nonfarm employment to supplement their household income in developing countries. Therefore, it raises the question of whether nonfarm employment complements or competes with agricultural production due to a possible shift in farm household labour to nonfarm employment. The consequences of participation in nonfarm employment on agricultural production could be two-fold. On the one hand, the increased cash earnings from nonfarm employment could be used to purchase agricultural inputs to intensify production. On the other hand, agricultural production might be negatively affected due to a shortage of labour. Lately, the agriculture sector in Bangladesh is experiencing this scenario due to a high demand for labour during crop planting and harvesting periods. Therefore, the direction of the impact of nonfarm employment on agricultural production needs to be investigated, especially in an agricultural dependent country like Bangladesh. Moreover, the research in this area still inconclusive based on the mixed findings in different countries. Surprisingly, there is no study appears regarding the impact of nonfarm employment on agricultural production in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) data 2015, collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been used in this study. To overcome the endogeneity issues of nonfarm income and censored nature of agricultural input expenditures, IV Tobit model is used to identify the effects of nonfarm employment on the expenditures of major agricultural inputs. In addition, treatment effect models (Nearest Neighbour Matching, Propensity Score Matching, and Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment) have been used to check the robustness of the findings obtained by the IV Tobit estimation. IV 2SLS estimation is also used to identify the effects of nonfarm employment on the use of family labour in agricultural production. Finally, the impact of nonfarm employment on the technical efficiency of production is investigated using the Stochastic Frontier Production model. The results show that nonfarm income has a positive impact on the total crop expenditure as well as expenditures on major purchased agricultural inputs (equipment, seed, fertilizer, purchased labour). Also, the robustness checks confirm the findings obtained by IV Tobit model. The findings also show that an increase in nonfarm income is negatively associated with the use of male family labour in crop production. Moreover, the technical inefficiency in agricultural production decreases when nonfarm income increases. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that nonfarm employment exerts an income effect on agricultural production by reducing the liquidity constraint and intensifying major purchased inputs. Thus, introducing policies that would increase rural nonfarm employment opportunities to rural households complements agricultural production and that could be a means to increase food production, ultimately leading to food availability as well as food security.

The Sahel region is largely dependent on agriculture as the main economic activity, with about 80-90% of the population actively engaged in agriculture. Land degradation is however a major environmental issue affecting the region, with negative consequences on agriculture. Unsustainable agricultural practices in the region in turn promote land degradation. This paper discusses the major environmental issues relating to land degradation and agriculture in the Sahel. It attempts to provide a descriptive report on the interactions between land degradation and agriculture based on a desk review of various scientific journals and reports on agriculture and land degradation in the Sahel region. Land degradation in the Sahel is characterised by soil degradation, mainly due to wind erosion. This is favoured by climatic factors such as drought and diminishing rainfall, compounded by anthropogenic factors, including population growth, agricultural intensification and overgrazing. Climatic and anthropogenic factors may act independently or have effects on each other. These factors result in the reduction of vegetation cover, decrease in fallow periods and a reduction in the balance between fallow areas and cultivated fields, which are vital to maintaining soil fertility and reducing losses from erosion. Agroforestry, integrated farming and practices that promote vegetation cover are proposed as sustainable land practices in the Sahel region. These will provide soil cover to protect soils against agents of erosion, increase agricultural productivity per unit land area and diversify farmers' sources of income, resulting in benefits for agricultural production and addressing land degradation.

The impact of climate change and production technology heterogeneity on China's agricultural total factor productivity and production efficiency

Karen MacoursUniversity of California, Berkeley, and Katholieke Universiteit LeuvenJohan F. M. SwinnenEuropean Commission and Katholieke Universiteit LeuvenI. IntroductionEconomic reforms have induced important output and productivity changesin the agricultural sectors of transition countries (TCs). There are, however,large differences between the countries in terms of the direction and themagnitude of these changes. For example, agricultural output increased con-siderably in the East Asian TCs, while there was a large output fall in theCentral and East European countries (CEECs) and the former Soviet Union(FSU) during transition (fig. 1).

Food production is key to achieving food security in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa. Since agricultural productivity is limited, however, due to inherent agro-ecological constraints and land degradation, sustainable agricultural intensification has been widely discussed as an opportunity for improving food security and reducing vulnerability. Yet vulnerability determinants are distributed heterogeneously in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and sustainable intensification cannot be achieved everywhere in cost-effective and efficient ways. To better understand the heterogeneity of farming systems’ vulnerability in order to support decision making at regional scales, we present archetypes, i.e. socio-ecological patterns, of farming systems’ vulnerability in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and reveal their nestedness. We quantitatively indicated the most relevant farming systems’ properties at a sub-national resolution. These factors included water availability, agro-ecological potential, erosion sensitivity, population pressure, urbanisation, remoteness, governance, income and undernourishment. Cluster analysis revealed eight broad archetypes of vulnerability across all drylands of sub-Saharan Africa. The broad archetype representing better governance and highest remoteness in extremely dry and resource-constrained regions encompassed the largest area share (19%), mainly indicated in western Africa. Moreover, six nested archetypes were identified within those regions with better agropotential and prevalent agricultural livelihoods. Among these patterns, the nested archetype depicting regions with highest erosion sensitivity, severe undernourishment and lower agropotential represented the largest population (30%) and area (28%) share, mainly found in the Sahel region. The nested archetype indicating medium undernourishment, better governance and lowest erosion sensitivity showed particular potential for sustainable agricultural intensification, mainly in western and some parts of southeastern and eastern Africa. Insights into the nestedness of archetypes allowed a more differentiated discussion of vulnerability and sustainable intensification opportunities, enhancing the evaluation of key interlinkages between land management and food security. The archetypes may support the transfer of successful intensification strategies based on similarities among the drylands in sub-Saharan Africa.

Agriculture, despite the relative stabilization of recent years, is still the weakest link in the Georgian economy. This is evidenced by the country's low level of self-sufficiency in many types of agricultural products (for wheat - 22%, for corn – 74%, for vegetables – 61%, for meat - 51%) and its high dependence on imports. In the first 9 months of 2022 alone, the negative balance in foreign trade in agricultural and food products amounted to 385.8 million US dollars, which negatively affects both the macroeconomic state of the economy and the country's exchange rate. Due to the rise in prices for oil products on the world market, Georgia had to pay USD 440 million more in January-September 2022 compared to the corresponding period last year, of which only less than 1/5 was due to economic growth, and the rest “was a merit” of the rise in oil prices. The uncultivated land area remains too large (up to 60%), which, along with other reasons, is due to the rise in the cost of material resources for the production of agricultural products (mineral fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural machinery, fuel). Due to the virtual lack of domestically produced non-ferrous products, the government can only regulate the price of fuel for farmers through the regulation of taxes (excise, VAT). Many countries follow the practice of returning part or all of the cost of fuel to farmers involved in the implementation of government programs or orders. In some countries, the state fully (Sweden) or partially (USA, Germany, etc.) covers the cost of fuel used for agricultural work. In our opinion, it is most acceptable for Georgia to subsidize diesel fuel purchased for agricultural work by manipulating indirect taxes (excise, VAT), for which it is necessary to develop a transparent mechanism for its use. An appropriate law should be adopted by the Parliament of Georgia. Appropriate subsidies should be extended exclusively to farmers involved in the relevant state programs (orders), as well as to the production associations created by them - cooperatives. The excise tax on 1 kg of fuel in Georgia is currently 44 tetri, and on one liter of fuel, respectively, 36.7 tetri. At the same time, if the amount of excise tax per liter of fuel is a constant value, VAT, on the contrary, is a variable value and in each specific case an individual calculation is required. We consider it lawful that the subsidization was at least 1.50 lari per liter of diesel fuel. At prices for October 2022, one liter of diesel fuel costs 4.10 GEL. To cultivate 5 hectares of arable land, a farmer needs approximately 100 liters of fuel, i.e. fuel worth 410 GEL. By subsidizing 1 liter of fuel in the amount of 1.50 GEL, the farmer can save 150 GEL, buying 100 liters of fuel will cost only 260 GEL (= 410-150), i.e. more than 1/3. It seems that in order to reduce the cost of agricultural work, the same work should be carried out in other areas (plowing, milling, sowing ...), which are currently estimated at 1,200 lari per hectare of agricultural land. It seems that in the future the same attitude should be shown in relation not only to fuel, but also to all other types of means of production. For this, the starting point should be the average index of prices for agricultural products for one harvest year, and in this way the average index of price growth for the corresponding means of production is calculated. Both indices should be approved as the basis of price parity between agricultural products and the means for its production (the parity will show how much industrial output or services an agricultural commodity producer can receive per unit of output he produces). Thus, if the increase in prices for agricultural products is 5%, and for inputs for agricultural production - 10%, the difference between them - 5% (= 10% -5%) should be covered by the budget. Price parity should be established for such strategic products as marketable grain, meat, milk, fruits, citrus fruits and some others. Which provide the country's food security and the processing industry with raw materials. The adoption of the law "On the establishment and protection of price parity for goods and services necessary for the reproduction of agricultural products" will contribute to the growth of agricultural products and deepen the production specialization of agriculture, increase the efficiency of the agricultural sector, increase its share in the national economy, motivate life and work in the countryside , reduce the migration of people from rural areas to cities or abroad and, last but not least, reduce the current high dependence on imports in the food supply of the population of Georgia.

Agriculture is one of the key drivers of Ethiopia’s long-term development and food security. It supports 85% of the total population, constitutes 43% of GDP and 80% of export value. For the country to reach middle-income prestige by 2025 and make significant inroads against food insecurity, strategic choices and concerted and strategic investments in agricultural sector are vigorous. The government of Ethiopia has put maximum efforts to increase agricultural output. However, increments in agricultural production and productivity, the expected benefits, have not been achieved yet. Low agricultural production and productivity is the major cause of food insecurity in the country emanating from lack of suitable technologies for beneficiaries, low adoption of agricultural innovations, and lack of active participation of farmers in agricultural research. Therefore, this study examines critical factors that hinder farmers’ participation in agricultural research in Ethiopia. A total sample size of 39 respondents comprising 16 farmers, 14 researchers and 9 development agents were interviewed purposively based on snowball sampling technique. Qualitative research design was used in this research. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and observations and analysed descriptively. The empirical results reveal that lack of sufficient time, bad experiences in the past, perception of farmers’ for researchers, farmer’s attitude for research, the type of research, lack of stakeholder’s willingness to learn from one another, loose integration of indigenous and scientific knowledge and insignificant change of new technologies to material wealth critically hindered farmer’s participation in agricultural research to bring innovation in agriculture.

Agriculture is one of the key drivers of Ethiopia’s long-term development and food security. It supports 85% of the total population, constitutes 43% of GDP and 80% of export value. For the country to reach middle-income prestige by 2025 and make significant inroads against food insecurity, strategic choices and concerted and strategic investments in agricultural sector are vigorous. The government of Ethiopia has put maximum efforts to increase agricultural output. However, increments in agricultural production and productivity, the expected benefits, have not been achieved yet. Low agricultural production and productivity is the major cause of food insecurity in the country emanating from lack of suitable technologies for beneficiaries, low adoption of agricultural innovations, and lack of active participation of farmers in agricultural research. Therefore, this study examines critical factors that hinder farmers’ participation in agricultural research in Ethiopia. A total sample size of 39 respondents comprising 16 farmers, 14 researchers and 9 development agents were interviewed purposively based on snowball sampling technique. Qualitative research design was used in this research. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and observations and analysed descriptively.

International commerce in agricultural and food products is an important component of food security and, for many developing countries, an essential part of their economic development. Agricultural products (which may be food or non-food) are imported or exported by most countries. Certain views equate food security with self-sufficiency, and thus regard importation of food as a mark of food insecurity at the national level, but the internationally accepted definition of food security does not share those views. Food security is nowadays defined as a situation in which all people at all times have access to adequate food; the food that is to be accessed may be produced domestically or imported. Thus exporting and importing food (and other agricultural products) is nowadays considered as a key element in achieving food security.This paper reviews tendencies in the amount and content of agricultural and food trade since the early 1960s, at the world scale and for major world regions, using a metric of world-average unit values based on 2004-2006. It finds that during the past half century, whilst agricultural production trebled, agricultural trade increased by a factor of eight. At region level, only the Americas (North and Latin America) are net exporters of agricultural and food products, whereas the other major regions (Europe, Asia and Africa) are net importers. It also finds that recent surges in agricultural and food commodity prices (2007-08 and 2010-11) have not disrupted the physical amounts traded, as initially feared.A Methodological Appendix at the end of the pa­per provides detailed information on sources and methods. Supplementary Information available online includes an Excel file containing estimates of reference world-average unit values for over 350 traded items for the ba­se period 2004-2006. Results are mainly based on the detailed country-level time series on agricultural and food trade annual flows for the period 1961-2011, contained in FAOSTAT, the FAO statistical information system on food and agriculture.

Climate change and the negative consequences it has on agriculture is already evident in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries. Mean annual rainfall in the Sahel region is declining and becoming more erratic while the growing season s. The impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in Nigeria going forward are expected to be severe, but so far there is a dearth of systemic analysis of how these impacts would develop over time, or how they would interact with other drivers impacting Nigerian agriculture. Such a systemic analysis could contribute to adaptation efforts by identifying policy mechanisms that serve as system ‘levers’ to effect change given the considerable uncertainty associated with both the socio-economic and ecological aspects of climate change. This study begins to provide a systematic analysis of the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria using a participatory research method. We convened a workshop of key stakeholders with diverse and in-depth knowledge of Nigerian agriculture in Ibadan, Nigeria, in June, 2016. Using a causal loop diagramming (CLD) technique, we grouped these stakeholders by region and led them through an exercise in which they drew diagrams depicting the barriers to, and opportunities for, Nigerian agricultural development. CLD is a method used in system dynamics modeling, and it is effective for identifying causal relationships between variables as well as feedback mechanisms.

With its Sahelian climate, Chad presents climatic parameters which have a very negative impact on its agricultural productivity. Faced with this natural problem for peasant society, political decision-makers do little to support local adaptation mechanisms. The study in Kélo, southern Chad, (606.9 mm; 28.9 ° C) was carried out for five months. The survey was conducted with 140 heads of households randomly chosen from this area to collect information relating to the damage caused by climatic vagaries on the yields of cultivated plants and the analysis of meteorological data collected at the Kélo station by l 'Chad Institute of Agronomic Research for Development (ITRAD) on climate variability which shows the irregularities of the rains at their beginnings and / or at their ends, the shortening of the rainy season and, a slight rise in temperature. These rainfall irregularities, the main crops are experiencing yield reductions of the order of 70¨% of the average, approximately: 20-25 bags of paddy per hectare against 7-12 bags of paddy for rice, 4-5 bags / ha against 2-3 bags / ha for sorghum and pearl millet, 10-13 bags / ha against 6-9 bags / ha for peanuts, 600-900 kg / ha against 250-600 kg for cotton, etc. . In 2018, rainfall over time shows linear correlations established between cereal and cotton yields on the one hand, and those of annual rainfall on the other. The result also shows that there are no explicit linear relationships between these variables. This shows that, mere knowledge of the rainfall regime is not enough to explain the decline in agricultural production; because poor agricultural production can result from both poor and surplus water conditions and / or poor distribution of rains. It is recorded that food production per capita also decreases; this decline occupies a very important place in all policies of local development projects but weakly applied by rural decision-makers. Consequently, there is recurrent food insecurity, putting the farmer in a dependency on assistantship from outside the region.