Terms for expressing earthquake potential, prediction, and probability

Abstract

Terms for expressing earthquake potential and prediction include two main categories, “long-term earthquake potential” and “earthquake prediction.” Earthquake prediction is subdivided into three categories “long-term prediction,” “intermediate-term prediction,” and “short-term prediction.” Long-term prediction is not subdivided, but two terms, “watch” and “forecast,” are recognized as having similar meanings. “Short-term prediction” is subdivided into “alert” and “imminent alert.” The subdivisions of earthquake prediction are based on different time frames. Earthquake potential or probability can be expressed either numerically or verbally according to a variety of schemes.