Abstract
TephraProb is a toolbox of Matlab functions designed to produce scenario–based probabilistic hazard assessments for ground tephra accumulation based on the Tephra2 model. The toolbox includes a series of graphical user interfaces that collect, analyze and pre–process input data, create distributions of eruption source parameters based on a wide range of probabilistic eruption scenarios, run Tephra2 using the generated input scenarios and provide results as exceedence probability maps, probabilistic isomass maps and hazard curves. We illustrate the functionality of TephraProb using the 2011 eruption of Cordon Caulle volcano (Chile) and selected eruptions of La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy). The range of eruption styles captured by these two events highlights the potential of TephraProb as an operative tool when rapid hazard assessments are required during volcanic crises.
Highlights
Tephra is the most widespread of all volcanic hazards
This paper provides an in–depth review of the possibilities offered by the TephraProb package
Eruption Range Scenarios (ERS), designed to assess the probability of accumulation of a critical tephra accumulation based on the statistical distribution of possible eruption source parameters and wind conditions; Table 1 Summary of probabilistic eruption scenarios implemented in TephraProb
Summary
Tephra is the most widespread of all volcanic hazards. Variations in deposit thickness and and grain–size, from proximal (i.e. a few kilometres from the vent) to distal locations (i.e. hundreds of kilometres) result in a wide range of potential impacts, from total loss (e.g. human and livestock casualties, destruction of vegetation and crops, collapse of buildings) to less dramatic but highly problematic consequences (e.g. damage to crops, damage to non-structural building elements, disruption of water and electricity supplies; Blong 1984; Jenkins et al 2014; Wilson et al 2011).
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